Playing Chicken With Wall Street During the Crisis

I've been a stock investor for 10 years and I personally trade the stocks that make up my IRA.

A couple weeks ago, I closed out a position in a technology stock after making a respectable gain.  Stocks in a different industry sector began to show some signs of weakness, so I used the money that was freed up from selling the tech stock to bet against that industry using what is known as an ultrashort exchange-traded fund (ETF).  This is like a mutual fund that goes up if the stocks it is following go down.  The beauty of these shorting ETFs is that it is possible to trade shares of them in an IRA, whereas regular shorting is not allowed in an IRA.

(No, it wasn't the financial industry I bet against, or you'd be reading now about how surprised I was that the SEC prohibitited short selling of financial company stocks last week)

My position in this ultrashort ETF has fluctuated from being up 20% just before the economic crisis was announced last Thursday to being down 10% today when congressional leaders anounced that there is basic agreement on the framework for an investment banking bailout.  I've asked myself a few times  why I didn't just exit the stock market when the crisis was announced.  After all, there is an old saying on Wall Street: "Bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."

And yet, there is a reason why I've maintained my position in the shorting ETF.  Even though it has declined a good bit from where it was last week, it has done so on drastically lower daily trading volume than average.  So, far fewer people now think it's a bad idea to bet against this particular industry than those who thought it was a good idea when I got in.  This has intrigued me, and convinced me that the actual destiny of my investment will not become clear until the daily trading volume returns to normal.  

When I look at the basics - the fact that this industry's stocks peaked in price last month, that the recent strength of the dollar caused further erosion, etc - it seems to me that the fundamental reasons for investing the way I did are all still there.  So I'm not blinking yet.  Wall Street has certainly humbled me in the past.  But I feel that now is a good time to "keep your head when all around you are losing theirs..." ask Kipling mused.