Do Talk To Strangers

In November 2014, two children belonging to Alexander and Danielle Meltiv were picked up by police officers while walking home from a park a third of a mile from their home at 5 p.m. The authorities did not contact the parents about the whereabouts of their kids until three hours later and would only release the children into their custody after they had signed a "temporary safety plan" promising not to leave their children unattended.[1]

There is a big problem with perception vs reality in the United States today. I'm talking now, specifically, about the misinformed and idiotic trend toward reporting, arresting, and charging parents with child endangerment for allowing their kids to play outside unsupervised. Given the reality of the risks involved, this embarrassing state of affairs constitutes a true tyranny of ignoramuses in the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave.

In the US, a child aged 14 or younger is more likely to die of a sudden, unexpected heart attack than to be abducted by a stranger. We have 60 million kids in this age group[2] and, in the latest year of compiled statistics, 115 of them were abducted by strangers.[3] That works out to a 0.00019% chance that, in a given year, a child aged 14 or younger will be abducted by a stranger. In fact, you are more likely to find a child dead of accidental drowning in a bathtub than you are to have him or her abducted by a stranger in any given year.

The most laughable (and tragic) misunderstanding of these odds is that many people feel that exposure to society is more dangerous for kids today than it was 20, 30, or 40 years ago. But this is not the case. From 1990 to 2007, for instance, "substantiated cases of child sexual abuse have declined 53% and physical abuse substantiations have declined 52%."[4] Rape, attempted or completed, against children fell a further 43% from 2003 to 2011.[5]

I could launch here into an exposition about why more people today are more likely to imagine that American society is more dangerous than it was in previous decades. But I'm not going to do that. It would only give a false air of legitimacy to the perpetrators of this trend. In the end, it is an uninteresting mystery to solve -- in the face of the active curtailment of liberty that is going on due to the breathless intervention of uninformed busy-bodies.

It really just comes down to this for parents: are you going to be influenced more by the true facts of the world or by fear of looking bad to people who are going to judge you regardless of how well you take care of your children? And to law enforcement, the courts, and the various child protective services agencies out there we need to say, "Enough is enough." What happened to the Meltiv family in Maryland should never happen to any family.

[1] Slate.com story about the Maltivs
[2] 2013 US population numbers by age range, US Census Bureau
[3] May 2013 Washington Post opinion piece by the director of the Crimes Against Children Research Center at the University of New Hamshire
[4] Trends in Childhood Victimization, Crimes Against Children Research Center, University of New Hamshire
[5] Free Range Kids.com crime statistics page

Meeting Princess And Her Family

I recently had a mind-expanding experience. A boy invited me into his father's gem shop in nearby Bastrop, Texas. There was a cabinet with an aquarium by the door that had a piece of notebook paper on the front with the word "Princess" written on it in magic marker.

The boy explained that princess was their pet tarantula and that she guarded the shop. While the father told me about his business, the boy took the screen off the top of the aquarium and took Princess out, holding her in his hands. I had never before been that near such a large spider. I turned to the boy and acknowledged the creature. She reared back, waving her two front legs in warning. The boy asked if I wanted to hold her. I said, "sure".

I held my hands open together near his and Princess hesitatingly approached. Then she decided to walk over onto my hands. When she did, I could feel the most unusual, marvelous adhesive sensation as the tips of each of her legs moved about on my palms. The father explained that a tarantula has its sense of smell in its feet and that if you raise one from infancy, it will bond to you through that sense like any other pet.

When my visit was over, I thanked the boy for letting me hold Princess. He thanked me for holding her. I had just made friends with a new family in a very old-fashioned way - by socializing with them about their pet.

Coming Out

In 2007, I happened to flip through a Nietzsche book at a bookstore. I couldn't put it down. He was bat-shit crazy about a number of things (for one, he was a huge bigot), but he was incredibly clear about many other things. One idea that struck me like lightning was his assertion that Christianity (and - any religion that promises an after-life) teaches people to disregard this life (which we know we do have) for the hope of another, future life (which we cannot know will occur). He did not mince words - stating that Christianity was "life-denying" etc.

I had already been cured (in my 20s) from my decade-long foray into Fundamentalism. But I carried (and to a lesser extent, still do carry) a sense of nostalgia, in a warm place in my heart for that "old-time religion". However, this Nietzsche philosophy hinted at a side of life one did not know and could never know if he or she held onto a hope of "heaven". He listed as virtues the things religion count as vices: ambition, the will to power, a healthy embrace of conflict, and an acceptance that when the world changes (example: Industrial Revolution), it is okay to throw away all of the former customs and ethics in order to embrace new, more suitable ones.

I just couldn't believe what I was reading. As in, I wondered how the censors of the world had somehow let this stuff slip through, unscathed. But it was clear, powerful, and had the ring of truth to it - "face the facts" kind of truth. There have been many other influences in my life for what I am about to say, it's just that he crystallized the important points most clearly.

Today, for the first time in my life, I say publicly and proudly, that I am an Atheist. I affirm that this life I have is the only life (that I know of) that I will ever have. When my heart stops beating and my brain stops firing the synapses that create the social persona of myself, there will be no more me. The foundation for my morals and ethics is the positive benefit I see to the world when I behave in certain ways and the positive feelings I experience when I follow that guide. I will probably still also claim the moniker of "Taoist" among people who have a hard time with my Atheism since the Tao Te Ching is non-theistic and its observations resonate with how I see the world. But even that is an inside joke with myself - since the very first verse of that book states: "The Tao that can be spoken of, is not the true Tao."

My First New Song In Over A Decade

Something about today being Good Friday unblocked a latent avalanche of creativity in me. This is the first new song I've written in over 10 years. The words "I used to cry when I heard you died" have been with me for much longer, but it just wasn't time to set them into jewelpiece of a whole song until now. Why now? Because instead of feeling desperation about them like I did in my 20s or contempt about them like I did in my 30s, I now feel a calm serenity.

Look What We've Done To You, Jesus
words and music by Bernard Valor
(c) 2012 All Rights Reserved

Look what we've done to you, Jesus
Look what we've done to the things you said
Chasing a ticket to heaven
We pass by your baskets of living bread

I used to cry when I heard you died
I used to cry, but now it feels, kind of cold inside -- 'cause all the preachers lied!

You taught us to love those who hate us
Asked us to turn the other cheek
But you must have been mistaken,
'Cause that'd only make us feel dumb and weak

We'd rather have the prize behind door number 3
Yeah, we'll take the the grace and all the mercy
Because you died on the tree --
Now won't you please let us be? [Ohhhhhh!]

Look what we've done to you, Jesus
Look what we've done to the words you said
Transformed you into a "savior"
Lost all the meaning you might have had

I used to cry when I heard you died
Nails in your hands, thorny crown,
Spear thrust in your side.
Yeah, that's why-y I cried

But that ain't the worst we did to you!
No -- we made you a god then we worshiped you.
Threw out the words that you taught us and made them a LIE....
We didn't even try!

Look what we've done to you Jesus

Cutting the Employment Cord

Yesterday was my last official day at EA Orlando, two weeks after I gave them notice. There was nothing wrong with the company or the position. It's just that I felt like I was going to burst unless I put myself "out there" and took a chance at creating a business of my own. I am fortunate to have money saved up so I could live on it for a few years (with a fairly tight budget) if I needed to.

I'm doing research on a handful of opportunities, all of them original business ideas. One of them is to emulate Fred DeLuca's (the founder of Subway Sandwiches) success by starting a fast food concept that can be refined into a system at one store, expanded locally, and later developed into a franchise opportunity. Another idea is to take my considerable expertise and create a new technology product or service - this would take more time but would have the potential for a much bigger payoff. You know me, I want it all - perhaps I can start the fast food shop, get it rolling with a good management team and then focus on developing the technology product.

Every job I've ever worked has been trouble simply because when I see ways for a company's processes to be improved I don't keep my mouth shut. On the contrary, I've been the epitome of the boy who called out, "The Emperor is naked!" It is only fair to the fine men and women who have had the challenge of trying to manage me that I remove myself from the employee pool and take a shot at being the Emperor. Interestingly - my way has worked out well when I've worked at startup companies where it's fine to chit-chat with the President and the Chief Technology Officer. I guess I just don't "get" turf wars and office politics - it all seems like a bunch of unnecessary friction that slows down the process of innovation and continuous improvement. I understand that there are many people who do "get" these things and who are willing to work around them in exchange for stable employment. I am very glad for such people - after all, my future companies are going to need managers and employees too.

In a way, it all boils down to this: Although I have finally come to accept that I cannot escape structure, I don't have to spend my life struggling against somebody else's structure. I have the option of creating my own structure - one that pleases me, one that I can live with and thrive in.

Well That Was A Short Nap

The stock market has come roaring back in the last couple of trading sessions from a mild downturn that only lasted about a month. Now, one or two up days does not a trend make. However, the volume of trade and the percent increase in the general indexes makes it pretty clear (to me, at least) that this is the beginning of something interesting.

I've re-entered the market with positions in travel, retail, rental car, and (I can't get over them) Chinese online gaming stocks. If you have been sitting on the sidelines with your retirement funds, I'd definitely encourage you to speak with a personal finance professional about re-entering the market at this time.

No-load index mutual funds for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ might be relatively stress-free candidates if you agree with me and wish to participate in the market's apparent upturn.

Disclaimer: I am not a personal finance professional and this information does not constitute an offer to sell investment products. These opinions are my own. You are responsible for your own decisions - Hell, I have trouble keeping my own shoelaces tied!

Birthing the Books Inside Me

They say, "Competence happens in a moment," and I have observed this to be true for myself and for many of my friends. Have you ever held most of the pieces of a mental puzzle in your mind - yet there was one crucial piece that you couldn't quite put your finger on? Later, through some serendipitous circumstance, (an offhand remark, a book, a song, etc) the missing piece came to you and the entire puzzle was solved. Once a solution like this occurs to you, it seems like an epiphany - a moment of enlightenment that illuminates not only the original puzzle, but also numerous other minor conundrums that had been put aside in the cupboards of the mind for future inquiry.

Over the years of my adult life, I have held many of life's major philosophical questions (Who am I? Why am I here? What is truth? etc) in this state of mental suspension while living out various different lifestyle situations. Because I journal, I have been able to notice the essential things which have resonated within me as common and authentic among my experiences. Within the last twelve months, it has felt as if several "final pieces" to these puzzles have come to me.

As a result, I've got about five books inside me that are mostly written. By that, I mean that it would only take a few weeks of writing to get any one of them in manuscript form, ready for editing. One of them is actually fully written in my mind, but I want to find an artist to collaborate on the project. It is a short, illustrated, guided mental journey in book form that would also include a CD with the text of the book spoken in several languages.

There will be many details to work out over the next months, such as: who will be my publisher, what channels of distribution will I use (Traditional? My own web site? Amazon Kindle? etc) how will I promote my work? etc. But none of these concerns feels daunting, they are all just parts of the adventure of giving birth to my spiritual "children" - perspectives on life that particularly turn me "on" and that I believe in my heart will delight and benefit others. I'll keep you informed on my progress here, watch for it!

A Different Lesson in Stock Market Humility

From an emotional point of view, I shouldn't have looked, I really shouldn't have.

But I did.

In the three day period since I sold DUG, it rocketed from the 42% gain I locked in, to a 95% gain from my original buy point. And it's still not showing signs of weakness.

Dad's voice in my mind is asking, "What did you learn?" and I've come up with an answer. If I had held on to the stock into the last half hour of the trading day (instead of selling it mid-afternoon) I would have been able to see a clearer picture of its behavior for the day. In DUG's case, this would have shown me that there was no clear sell signal and it is likely I wouldn't have sold.

Jesse Livermore, a famous (or infamous, to some) stock investor at the beginning of the 1900s used to say, "People fear when they should hope, and hope when they should fear." I used to think this was a kind of indictment on those other traders who are somehow weak. But now I see that he was just making an honest observation about how we all act sometimes.

T. Harv Eker writes about each person having a financial thermostat that is defined by his or her upper and lower financial comfort zones. If the person's financial situation goes below or above that range, he or she tends to subconsciously "correct" it so that the comfort zone is maintained. Evidently, my upper comfort zone for stock trading profits is somewhere around 42%. Well worth noticing.

Not Too Shabby

Recently, I blogged about holding on to a security during the US economic bailout crisis. I can now reveal that I was holding shares of DUG, the ultrashort ETF for US oil industry stocks. I sold my shares yesterday and locked in a 42% gain.

I was confident enough in the weakening demand for oil (due to turbulence in the general economy) that I did not check up on my position while I was out of town last week on my retreat. Yet I knew the market might rally once the wall street bailout went through. It turns out that the turmoil in the European credit markets bought my ETF a little more upside Monday and Tuesday.

Stocks headed lower yesterday as well. But when the Fed announced a rate cut coordinated with rate cuts in Europe, the S&P 500 seemed to rally and at 2:30 PM, DUG was trading near the bottom of its intraday range on higher trading volume. In other words, it looked like more people who held DUG were starting to doubt its value than the ones who felt it would go higher. With all the uncertainty in the economy, I decided to pull the trigger and lock in my gain.

Maddeningly, the general markets turned bearish from 3:30 to 4:00 PM and DUG ended up right in the middle of its trading range today - not a clear "sell" signal after all. Nevertheless, I feel good about following the instincts I've developed as a result of studying the market over the past 10 years. That goes for holding it last week as well as selling it yesterday.

Playing Chicken With Wall Street During the Crisis

I've been a stock investor for 10 years and I personally trade the stocks that make up my IRA.

A couple weeks ago, I closed out a position in a technology stock after making a respectable gain.  Stocks in a different industry sector began to show some signs of weakness, so I used the money that was freed up from selling the tech stock to bet against that industry using what is known as an ultrashort exchange-traded fund (ETF).  This is like a mutual fund that goes up if the stocks it is following go down.  The beauty of these shorting ETFs is that it is possible to trade shares of them in an IRA, whereas regular shorting is not allowed in an IRA.

(No, it wasn't the financial industry I bet against, or you'd be reading now about how surprised I was that the SEC prohibitited short selling of financial company stocks last week)

My position in this ultrashort ETF has fluctuated from being up 20% just before the economic crisis was announced last Thursday to being down 10% today when congressional leaders anounced that there is basic agreement on the framework for an investment banking bailout.  I've asked myself a few times  why I didn't just exit the stock market when the crisis was announced.  After all, there is an old saying on Wall Street: "Bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."

And yet, there is a reason why I've maintained my position in the shorting ETF.  Even though it has declined a good bit from where it was last week, it has done so on drastically lower daily trading volume than average.  So, far fewer people now think it's a bad idea to bet against this particular industry than those who thought it was a good idea when I got in.  This has intrigued me, and convinced me that the actual destiny of my investment will not become clear until the daily trading volume returns to normal.  

When I look at the basics - the fact that this industry's stocks peaked in price last month, that the recent strength of the dollar caused further erosion, etc - it seems to me that the fundamental reasons for investing the way I did are all still there.  So I'm not blinking yet.  Wall Street has certainly humbled me in the past.  But I feel that now is a good time to "keep your head when all around you are losing theirs..." ask Kipling mused.