Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Locking In the Gains of 1H 2009

I sold all of my stock holdings this week since my instincts tell me the market has decided to take a breather. The major indexes were down more that one percent two days in a row recently. (although on tame volume) The market has had a nice run up since mid-March, it's about time for it to digest its gains.

Here's how I did in this period: Shanda Interactive (SNDA) +24%, Net Ease (NTES) +34%, Chanyou (CYOU) +72%. (you read that right, seventy-two percent)

I'm half tempted to dig into my savings, fire my employer, and strike out on my own to seek fame and fortune. But I've gained just enough maturity to realize this would be a reaction based on the hubris of my recent market success. That success is about five percent due to my brains, ten percent due to my bravery in the shadow of difficult economic times, and eighty-five percent due to the fact that a rising tide raises all boats. The key was to get into the market when I did and let it do the magic it does when it is in an upswing. The brains part was noticing that Asian gaming stocks were some of the darlings of the spring rally.

Hubris-avoidance aside, I'm enjoying my day job. I look forward to the process of developing the online game that my team is creating. I intend to achieve the kind of satisfaction that only comes from collaborating with others to accomplish a challenging goal. It is not without relevance that the salary I'm drawing will help me save up additional capital so that I'm better prepared for my eventual - inevitable - enterpreneurial siezure. (as Michael Gerber calls it in his famous "E-Myth" books

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Remebering June 4, 1989

Twenty years ago this week, hundreds of Chinese pro-democracy student demonstrators paid the ultimate price for their courage to stand up against the corruption and repression of their government. I haven't often reflected on the events of that magical summer which heralded the end of world Communism. But all it took was a photo in the news this week of that solitary Chinese student standing peacefully yet defiantly in front of a column of tanks to bring back a rush of deep emotions. My guts wrenched, my lungs heaved, my tears flowed, and I was 21 again - full of idealism and belief in the ultimate triumph of what is good. Connected, in some mysterious way, with my brothers and sisters from that time in Warsaw, and Bucharest, and East Berlin, and Beijing, and Moscow.

It is, frankly, irrelevant to ask whether the Tianenman Square massacre "accomplished" anything useful. Pundits will debate whether or not it was a wake-up call to the leadership of the Chinese communist party, or whether it helped lead to the years of economic prosperity that many more Chinese citizens now enjoy. What it means to me is that our species occasionally surprises itself in bright, shining moments when nothing matters to us more than the freedom of the human spirit. We cast off the conniving, calculating, resignation we feign (in order to "get by" in modern society) for something far greater and worthier. We put everything the world has told us is valuable at risk in order to win a prize that is impossible to justify or even quantify with mere numbers or arguments.

As Jim Reeves used to sing, "Life goes on and this old world just keeps on turning." There are jobs to do and spouses to love and kids to raise and bills to pay. These incredible events rise and fall and rise again when they are called for. But I was quite surprised by how viscerally and profoundly I could feel the emotions of my 21 year-old self. Perhaps you will experience this some day. When you do, do yourself a favor and feel it fully. Let the tears flow and the lungs heave. It is good practice for keeping the human spirit free.