The End of an Era: RIP Zig Ziglar

"You will get all you want in life if you help enough other people to get what they want."
-Zig Ziglar

With Zig Ziglar's death at age 86 today, an era has ended in the Personal Development world. Zig, Mary Kay Ash, and Jim Rohn were all inspired by a man named John Earl Shoaff who dazzled many with his wealth, lifestyle, and philosophy back in the 1960s. All three became inspirations to millions and earned great wealth as motivational speakers in the decades that followed.

Tony Robbins, Jack Canfield (Chicken Soup book series), Brian Tracy and literally hundreds of others who have tried their hand at motivational speaking or writing got their initial impetus from Zig, Mary Kay, and Jim. I myself owe a big debt of gratitude to Mr. Rohn for the difference his words made in my life. It is because of him that I became serious about journaling, goal setting, and taking responsibility for my own success in life regardless of upbringing or circumstances.

When I first heard Jim Rohn speak in 1993, my financial world was so small that I thought $20,000 per year was "making it". Although I was very bright at other subjects, understanding the concept that 'learning new skills that are in higher demand can lead to a high income' eluded me. I was waiting for God to bless me, the economy to get better, a relative to help me out, etc, etc. I guess God did bless me the day I heard Rohn say,

"Whatever happens in life happens to us all. Circumstances are like the wind that blows - you cannot control the wind. But your personal philosophy is like the set of the sail on the boat of your life. Don't wish for a better wind to blow, wish for the wisdom to set a better sail."

It took me a few years to get into this kind of thinking. My first, early goals were very timid. But then I got serious about learning skills and setting income goals (before I was even employed, other than as a waiter while going back to college). By 1997, I was making $32,000 per year. By 2000, I was making over $65,000 per year. Then over $80,000 in 2005 and in 2007, I crossed the six figure mark in anual salary (not including benefits) and have been in that vicinity ever since.

Did I get lucky? You bet I did. Nobody "called" the Internet boom back when I decided to go back to school for computer science in 1995. But there were enough hints of what was to come just by noticing the number of help-wanted ads in that field. That's where my intelligence helped out. But the fact is, I wouldn't even have thought to look at those ads or to re-train for a whole new field of work, if Jim Rohn hadn't spoken into my life.

Sometimes I wonder who will take up the 'influence' mantle of John Earl Shoaff for the people born in the '80s and '90s. Who will be the next generation of voices, perhaps inspired by Tony Robbins, Jack Canfield, Brian Tracy, Mark Victor-Hansen, or even Rhonda Byrne, Deepak Chopra, or Wayne Dyer? Maybe in the Internet age, with TED talks, blogs, YouTube lessons, and so on, a new, a more democratic day has dawned with fewer motivational "stars". That's fine. As long as the message gets out which challenges people similarly to these words, by John Earl Shoaff:

"Lets not be moons, the reflector of light. Lets be suns, the creator of light - the creator of ideas. Because we all have the capacity."

Fall 2012: Prelude To Recession

In my opinion, the U.S. economy has begun a slide into probable recession. This prediction is based on a technical reading of the major stock market averages (Dow Industrial, Nasdaq, S&P 500) as well as analysis of several recent shocks to our economic system. I have "called" these economic movements in the past and occasionally been correct about them. I want to give you, the reader, an opportunity to understand what I'm seeing, so I will use this blog to explain the analysis that happens behind the predictions.

In stock charting, we don't just show the price points making up the chart. We usually also draw a line on the chart showing the average price of the last 50 trading days. Additionally, we draw a 200-day moving average. Taken together, these moving average lines depict the longer-term direction of the price that is being tracked.

In a healthy stock market, the prices of the major indexes stay above their 50-day moving average lines (and the 50-day moving average lines stay above the 200-day moving average lines). This indicates the price is increasing and its long term trend is upward.


Thanks to stockcharts.com

Here is a daily price chart of the S&P 500 Index from late May 2012 to the date of this blog post. We have healthy behavior in portion 1, within the green circle, where the daily price lines are moving upward above the blue line, which is the 50-day moving average line.

A few weeks ago, in portion 2, (yellow circle) we have a warning indicator. The daily values have dropped below their 50-day moving average, but they are still above their 200-day moving average. Stocks and indexes occasionally bread down below their 50-day moving averages but then recover above them. That is not what has happened here.

A few days ago, in portion 3, (red circle) we see a serious warning that the S&P 500 index may have begun a longer-term downward trend. The daily values have crossed below their 200-day moving average. Notice that the index has remained below the warning level for several trading days. The Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial average are both also below their 200-day moving averages and have been there several trading days longer than the S&P 500 index has.

so we start with the facts - reality - the three major indexes have all fallen into the danger zone, and have not recovered so far. To be sure, there have been occasions in the past when they all crossed below the danger thresholds then recovered back up into healthy territory. On the other hand, every recession in this country dating back at least to the Great Depression, has been signaled by the major indexes of the day slipping below their 200-day moving averages and not recovering.

In concert with the stock market danger zone, we have: 1) the "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and federal spending cuts looming, 2) continuing uncertainty regarding solvency in Europe, 3) a recent swell of unemployment due to the destruction from Hurricane Sandy, 4) thousands of troops returning from foreign wars also joining the pool of the unemployed, and 5) Atlas Shrugged - in the form of pissed off Republican business owners retaliating for four more years of Barack Obama by cutting hours and positions to protest what they see as a slide into Socialism.

A deal on the fiscal cliff would certainly give a positive jolt to the economy but it remains to be seen whether that, alone, would provide enough impetus to restore it to the path of slow, gradual growth it had been on prior to November.