Fall 2013 US Economic Prediction

I am beginning to convince myself that the US economy is headed for a 3-5 year window of high sustained growth. Here are a few reasons why:

Recall that 2008 was the last year that people with terrible credit could obtain easy housing credit. 2008 + 5 is 2013, which means that this is the last year that banks have to deal with uncertainty about large numbers of borrowers with cheaper 5-year Adjustable Rate mortgages going through foreclosure. The orderly winding down of these toxic assets will enable local and national banks to open up their reserves for legitimate business lending more freely.

Also, competition for high-tech workers is really heating up in the job market. I'm getting the kinds of unsolicited phone calls and emails I got back in 1998 and 2005. Yes, this portends a future bubble-burst, but one that is several years out, with the actual, you know, bubble, in the meantime.

Finally, the stock market has shown uncanny resilience in the face of multiple fiscal crises from Washington over the past 10 months. The right kind of stocks are heading in the right direction: temporary worker companies like Manpower and for-profit education companies like DeVry.

(disclaimer: I don't have any financial interest in either of the stocks mentioned except perhaps accidentally via my employer's 401(k) benefit)

Fall 2012: Prelude To Recession

In my opinion, the U.S. economy has begun a slide into probable recession. This prediction is based on a technical reading of the major stock market averages (Dow Industrial, Nasdaq, S&P 500) as well as analysis of several recent shocks to our economic system. I have "called" these economic movements in the past and occasionally been correct about them. I want to give you, the reader, an opportunity to understand what I'm seeing, so I will use this blog to explain the analysis that happens behind the predictions.

In stock charting, we don't just show the price points making up the chart. We usually also draw a line on the chart showing the average price of the last 50 trading days. Additionally, we draw a 200-day moving average. Taken together, these moving average lines depict the longer-term direction of the price that is being tracked.

In a healthy stock market, the prices of the major indexes stay above their 50-day moving average lines (and the 50-day moving average lines stay above the 200-day moving average lines). This indicates the price is increasing and its long term trend is upward.


Thanks to stockcharts.com

Here is a daily price chart of the S&P 500 Index from late May 2012 to the date of this blog post. We have healthy behavior in portion 1, within the green circle, where the daily price lines are moving upward above the blue line, which is the 50-day moving average line.

A few weeks ago, in portion 2, (yellow circle) we have a warning indicator. The daily values have dropped below their 50-day moving average, but they are still above their 200-day moving average. Stocks and indexes occasionally bread down below their 50-day moving averages but then recover above them. That is not what has happened here.

A few days ago, in portion 3, (red circle) we see a serious warning that the S&P 500 index may have begun a longer-term downward trend. The daily values have crossed below their 200-day moving average. Notice that the index has remained below the warning level for several trading days. The Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial average are both also below their 200-day moving averages and have been there several trading days longer than the S&P 500 index has.

so we start with the facts - reality - the three major indexes have all fallen into the danger zone, and have not recovered so far. To be sure, there have been occasions in the past when they all crossed below the danger thresholds then recovered back up into healthy territory. On the other hand, every recession in this country dating back at least to the Great Depression, has been signaled by the major indexes of the day slipping below their 200-day moving averages and not recovering.

In concert with the stock market danger zone, we have: 1) the "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and federal spending cuts looming, 2) continuing uncertainty regarding solvency in Europe, 3) a recent swell of unemployment due to the destruction from Hurricane Sandy, 4) thousands of troops returning from foreign wars also joining the pool of the unemployed, and 5) Atlas Shrugged - in the form of pissed off Republican business owners retaliating for four more years of Barack Obama by cutting hours and positions to protest what they see as a slide into Socialism.

A deal on the fiscal cliff would certainly give a positive jolt to the economy but it remains to be seen whether that, alone, would provide enough impetus to restore it to the path of slow, gradual growth it had been on prior to November.

Weighing Separate Wisdom Paths: Business Choice 2010

It's springtime in the American economy - time to plant seeds of enterprise that may, with some luck and a good bit of determination and skill, bring forth a bountiful harvest as the recovery kicks into high gear over the next few years. And I've been reading and listening to a lot of great business educational material lately. I find that there are two broad categories of advice with regard to the choice of a business.

The first wisdom path is the "Do What You Love And The Money Will Come" school of thought. This line of reasoning dates back at least as far as Confucius (500 BCE) who was the first person we know of to write, "Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life." It is tempting to take this advice just to prove to myself (and to my slice of the world) whether or not it is really true. If, as Deepak Chopra writes, I choose the path that I would have chosen anyway (were I already rich), the path that most completely matches my gifts to the needs of the world, I would unhesitatingly choose to become an author and speaker in the field of personal development. (AKA "Motivational Speaker") I've got a great life story that already sounds like something you'd read in a movie script and it lights me up to pass on the wisdom that had made such a dramatic difference in my life. Any of my close friends could attest to the truth of these assertions.

I've recently gone far enough along this path to create stubs for chapters of a book that I think would be timely and relevant to America's current economic situation. It's entitled, "How To Thrive During The Recovery". It has specific, practical advice about how to take advantage of our developing economic upturn - whether the reader is interested in employment, business, real estate, or stock investing. I've also created the opening portions of a free, 90-minute seminar that I could give in cities as the book is launched to help introduce it to the public. (as well as enroll people in future advanced seminars offered for pay)

The drawback with pursuing the first path is that I'm currently a completely unknown commodity to the public. Even though I feel confident in the value of what I have to say, I'd be starting from scratch without the benefit of having created a "brand" as a person of well-known or easily researched accomplishments. To say it more plainly, it would be a heck of a lot easier to put butts in seats and sell my books if I'd already developed a certain level of authentic celebrity. There would be hard work involved either way but there's nothing wrong with having as many factors as possible in your favor when you attempt something big.

The second broad wisdom path says, "Find out what the market wants, crunch the numbers, and then choose the opportunity with the best bottom line." Jim Rohn would say something like: Don't worry so much about discovering your passion; find a great opportunity and then pour your own passion into it. When I crunch the numbers, it is obvious that the field of wealth management offers me the greatest upside potential for financial success given my marketable skills. While it is true that I'd be starting as an unknown commodity in this field as well, the rewards of doing well over time dwarf the rewards I could reasonably expect from a speaking career or even starting up a new tech company. My close friends could also attest to my skills in the stock market, so I feel some confidence in my abilities here. I'd have a lot of growing to do to sell and market my services successfully, but I view that as a growth opportunity, not a problem. And I'd need to develop these skills for the motivational speaking career anyway.

It's by no means a done deal, but the second wisdom path looks more and more attractive to me. Assuming I created a wealth management practice and did well with it, I could use that track record later as the marketing springboard for the motivational speaking/writing career. Although this seems to be common sense, I have an innate sense of aversion to anything that looks like putting a dream on hold for a mythical "someday" when one is finally ready to get started on it. So I'm still percolating on these things. Maybe this time around the lesson will be to overcome that aversion and go with the practical path for a change. No matter which one I choose, I intend to devote my sole focus to that choice for at least the next decade or longer. This is why I'm sitting with the question for now... The outcome of this process will mean saying "No" to something I'm very interested in pursuing, whichever choice wins out. And (simply as an acknowledgement of my lack of omniscience) until I decide, I am open to discovering an even better path than the ones I'm currently considering.

I don't intend to take long to decide. Springtime doesn't last forever. One is better served by planting seeds and getting some crop than by staring at the field for too long wondering which crop would be best.

Not-As-Bad No Substitute for Good

After leaving my full-time job in September, my inital inclination was to immediately relocate to a faster growing city. This notion was influenced by two major hypotheses: 1) If I start a business, I want to do it in a market with plenty of demand for my products or services. 2) If I invest in real estate, I want to buy in areas where the rents will produce great cash flow even after paying for the mortgage, taxes, and repairs. Orlando has a lot going for it, but it's been hit pretty badly by our current recession. No. I reasoned that since I had nothing tying me to Orlando, I should select the best US metro area I could find, start from scratch there, and allow its rising tide to lift my boat as well.

A funny thing happened on the way to relocation-ville. As I researched cities according to their US Census Bureau growth statistics and monthly unemployment rates, I got a bit sidetracked from my primary criteria by the noise of the data. At first Atlanta looked attractive due to its high population growth from 2000 to 2008. When I discovered it had a higher unemployment rate than the national average, however, its luster faded. More recently, Austin, TX seemed promising due to its combination of high population growth and lower unemployment rate.

But digging deeper into Austin's data has revealed that while unemployment is lower there, it is still increasing on a monthly basis. "Slower slowing" is not the criterion I started with. I require growth. Data published on USA Today's website from Moody's economy.com shows that it may be well into 2011 before Austin or, indeed, any sizeable US city shows significant jobs growth. This correlates pretty well with our last recession: the market topped in 2000, it bottomed in 2003, and jobs began to return about 18 months later. In the current recession, the stock market topped at the end of 2007, hit bottom in March of 2009 and here we are, waiting for the jobs to show up again.

Let me mention why this is so important. Jobs are what fuel the kind of population increases that are attractive to real estate investors. As jobs grow and populations rise, people become willing to pay the kind of rental rates that can cover mortgage payments, taxes, and repair bills. Ultimately it is the prosperity of an environment like this that creates healthy growth in property values, since more and more people go for the dream of owning a home. On the other hand, when an area is simply losing jobs more slowly than others, you end up with less people in the area than there are rental units. Now your rental property is compared to others solely based on price and nobody wins in that environment.

My strategy remains the same. I will ultimately relocate to a major US metro area based on its growth in population and jobs. However, I'm not going to try to guess in advance which city that will be. I'm going to keep my finger on the pulse of the monthly data and allow candidate cities to emerge in their own sweet time. The second halves of recessions are like that: months and months of seeming inactivity, and then, POW, the heavens seem to open, corporate budgets are expanded, and jobs look like they're falling out of the sky.

A final note. I may yet relocate in the near term. But if I do, it will likely be because there was a better reason to hang out somewhere else during this current non-growth period of time than here in Orlando. I'll keep you posted.

View From the Ground: Atlanta

They say the three keys to business success are, "Location, location, location." Atlanta, Georgia has been showing up on a lot of "Top 10" lists lately, for entrepreneurship, lifestyle, growth, etc. Annual data from the US Census bureau shows that it is certainly one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country. I decided to take action and travel to Atlanta myself to get a first-hand glimpse of the city and the surrounding areas. I've just completed four days there and my impressions are very favorable.

There are a number of neighborhoods like Decatur, Virginia Highlands, and, yes, even the downtown district where shops and restaurants are convenient to the walking public. This feature appeals to me as a businessman because it fosters that viral, word-of-mouth buzz that's just harder to attract if you're located in a strip mall. However, strip malls have their place too. In the numerous and prospering suburban communities along what's being called the "I-85 Corridor" to northwest of the city, I observed a great deal of business demand in the form of full shopping center parking lots and decent waiting lines in front of midrange to upscale restaurants.

While in Atlanta, I scored a meeting with the Vice President of Economic Development at the Atlanta Chamber of Commerce and he supplied me with key information on everything from business licensing to demographic trends to commercial real estate resources.

All in all, a successful trip - I came away with a great picture of what Atlanta can offer in terms of retail business demand and growth trends. Incidentally, the people of the city were friendly and helpful, regardless of which neighborhood I visited. Whether or not Atlanta is my future destination remains to be seen. There are a couple of other promising metro markets I plan on visiting before making my decision.