"Getting" Twitter

When I first heard about Twitter.com, it was through a co-worker in the computer games industry. He didn't get Twitter and he described it to me in a way that made it sound like a crack pipe for narcissistic ADD sufferers. It was only recently, during emergency relief efforts for the Haiti and Chile earthquakes that I even gave Twitter a second thought. Turns out Twitter was very useful as a communication tool of last resort for hundreds of thousands of people during those crises.

I'm currently attending South by Southwest Interactive, a conference that features the latest information about all the cool technology that makes Web 2.0 happen. (Facebook, Farmville, Twitter, etc) I arrived here without a Twitter account set up and with a very basic (read: non-"smart") mobile phone. It was a riot. Whenever I introduced myself to someone, they either wanted my Twitter ID or they wanted me to use a smartphone to scan their badge barcode to get their info. I felt like an armless man at a canoe-rowing party. It certainly didn't help that I decided to come just two weeks ago and didn't print up any personal business cards. Yes kids, it turns out that spontaneity can have its drawbacks.

But being immersed in this conference and it's amazing sea of digitally connected people had a very positive effect on me. I came to understand that Twitter's model of following others and very short update messages really does enable something positive. It allows the rapid creation and destruction of networks of helpful acquaintances who have the information you are interested in right now. It helps break people out of the dreadful fright they have about "tooting your own horn." As the wise advice goes - if you don't toot your horn, who is going to toot it?

So Twitter isn't about narcissism in a negative sense. I've come to see that it is a useful platform to allow natural leaders in various areas to emerge organically, based on their insight into topics that matter in any given context. It basically allows instantly formed chat rooms around topics that suddenly become relevant. The readers and other contributors to the topics can get to know very quickly who is and who is not relevant with regard to the topic and can choose to follow those who distinguish themselves. Since we all are more conversant on some topics than others, it is a true democratization of information - each of us can contribute to the benefit of all of us, based on the topics that matter to any of us.

I hope you will go to twitter.com and give it a try. Create a free account, upload a profile photo, and let it's introductory screen try to locate your other friends (based on your email contacts). Then start "tweeting". Go one step further in the setup screens and turn on the ability to send updates from your mobile phone. It's really easy and it allows you to "get the word out" to the people who matter to you very very easily. (even if you have an old phone that only sends text messages - btw, standard text fees apply of course) Open your mind to the possibilities, and you'll be surprised at the benefits you gain, both socially and personally.

That Was Easy

Last night I installed the latest version of Ubuntu Linux (9.10) on my main PC. Went off without a hitch. I was able to quickly get up-to-speed with the app (called a package manager) that lets you find and install other programs. This is a more impressive job by Ubuntu than it sounds, because I installed the "server" version of the OS that doesn't come with a graphical user interface by default. Finding the window manager I wanted and getting it up and running quickly (with all dependencies and a sensible set of default graphical programs) "just worked". This is something that couldn't be said of many Linux experiences of years gone by. Sound didn't work right away for me, but hey - you've almost got to have some kind of glitch or it wouldn't feel like a genuine Linux experience! It was a known issue with an easy fix.

Since I've been vegging out with Windows 7 at home for just about a year now, (though I used Linux at work) it was fun to observe my brain zoom back up to speed with the UNIX command line mojo I've developed over the years. Like riding a bicycle - it all came rushing back. On a philosophical note, I, by far, prefer a system that does everything via command-line processing with GUI sugar added on (like Linux) to a system that starts with a GUI and then tries to expose some of its functionality via command line later. (like Windows and the old Mac OS) This makes it possible to easily create scripts that do useful things - easy to make a system run the way I want it to rather than the way its creator wants me to: Legos versus a jigsaw puzzle.

I've already installed the latest versions of several programming languages. Among these are the usual suspects like c++, Java, and Python. But I did a little digging and installed Google's new language, "go!", as well. I figure any language co-created by a guy who helped birth UNIX (as well as the obscure "Plan9" OS - the name was inspired by the title of a cult sci-fi movie) has got to have something going for it. Well, more seriously, go! is interesting to me for two reasons: it exposes multiprocessing in the language itself, and it is the first new well-backed "systems" language (you can build low-level servers with it) in decades. This latter point makes me happy because it is a pie the face of snobby academia elites who decry, "We don't need any more computer languages! It couldn't possibly bring anything new to the table!"

So yeah - geekin' out, coding, trying out riffs of ideas that have been rolling around in the back of my mind for a while.

Losing An Uncle, Gaining A Family

I'm not sure why it takes a death in the family to spur us to reconnect with loved ones we've lost track of, but that's what the last few days has been like for me. My beloved Uncle Stan died on Valentine's day and I traveled to his part of the country to attend the memorial service held in his honor last weekend.

Stan lived a long and interesting life and he was rich in the areas that count most, love and life experiences - as well as being well off materially. Like a star, his homestead attracted the nearby dwelling places of his natural and extended families. His own fascinating house commands an incredible view at the top of a low summit aptly named "Love's Hill". It's tempting to write about the cool cars he drove and raced, his pilot's license, his professional ascent to Chief of Medicine at the hospital where he worked, as well as the less auspicious but satisfying medical work he did at local schools and prisons. My dad says that his brother "Wanted to do everything, try everything." It's pretty clear from my life history that I inherited that part of the family's genetic sequence myself.

Whether it was the turbulent transition from the sixties to the seventies or personal transitions in their own lives, my father and uncle left the wives of their 20s and 30s at a similar time, stranding cousins and aunts from the regular contact that would have happened if it had not been so. We all went by nicknames back then. I was "Buddy" (Bernard II), Stan Jr. was "Chummy", and his brother John was "Johnny". My paternal grandparents were a hub of occasional re-uniting, and it was always fun to get together. Well fun for me anyway, I was the youngest of us three. I'm sure I was a bit of a pain in the butt to Chummy and Johnny, but it was the good kind of pain in the butt - they got back at me whenever we went outside and played catch. Guess who got to be the eternal and everlasting monkey in the middle? Good times.

And then the inevitable high school commencements and goings out into the world, some to college, some to the military. We were spread out all over the country. Every once in a while one of us would make an effort and re-establish contact. But like in the parable of the sower, "the cares of this world" took their toll and it would often be years before we would hear from one another.

So last weekend, I got the chance to hug the necks of some dear people I hadn't seen in a good long while, not just Chummy and Johnny and their mother, but Stan's second family and friends of the family as well. Miss Baltimore came with me (I had been visiting her for Valentine's weekend when I got the news) and it was a delight to introduce her to them and vice versa. It felt so good to be so connected again after all the years. I hope we all make the effort to keep in touch and visit from time to time.

Back On The Horse

Yes, yes, I've been neglecting my blog, but it's never too late to get back on the horse. I got so used to updating my status on social networking sites that I got away from posting "big picture" articles here. But I intend to create the kind of structure in my life that supports taking care of both.

Thanks for reading, and staying with me!

Happy Thanksgiving '09

Miss Baltimore flew down to Orlando. She and I are driving to the Florida panhandle to visit her mother's family for Thanksgiving. Here's hoping all my readers enjoy a great holiday!

What I am most thankful for: That I matter to those who matter to me.

Fall 2009: Stock Market Likely to Decline

If you have exposure to the stock market, you may want to dial it back to a money market fund or cash. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ composite indexes pierced below important levels of support today. (their 50-day moving averages) This often happens when the market is going to decline for a period of time.

All in all, not a terrible run since March when the market turned positive: a 58% increase for the NASDAQ and a 45% increase for the S&P 500.

Several companies declined sharply this week after reporting earnings that just barely missed estimates. Some declined even though they beat their earnings estimates. This is typical behavior when the market is turning south, when even good news is not enough to keep stocks moving up.

I have sold all the stocks in my personal portfolio and am looking now for opportunities to make money on declines.

Remember - don't blame the government or your retirement plan company if you fail to keep an eye on your nest egg!

Not-As-Bad No Substitute for Good

After leaving my full-time job in September, my inital inclination was to immediately relocate to a faster growing city. This notion was influenced by two major hypotheses: 1) If I start a business, I want to do it in a market with plenty of demand for my products or services. 2) If I invest in real estate, I want to buy in areas where the rents will produce great cash flow even after paying for the mortgage, taxes, and repairs. Orlando has a lot going for it, but it's been hit pretty badly by our current recession. No. I reasoned that since I had nothing tying me to Orlando, I should select the best US metro area I could find, start from scratch there, and allow its rising tide to lift my boat as well.

A funny thing happened on the way to relocation-ville. As I researched cities according to their US Census Bureau growth statistics and monthly unemployment rates, I got a bit sidetracked from my primary criteria by the noise of the data. At first Atlanta looked attractive due to its high population growth from 2000 to 2008. When I discovered it had a higher unemployment rate than the national average, however, its luster faded. More recently, Austin, TX seemed promising due to its combination of high population growth and lower unemployment rate.

But digging deeper into Austin's data has revealed that while unemployment is lower there, it is still increasing on a monthly basis. "Slower slowing" is not the criterion I started with. I require growth. Data published on USA Today's website from Moody's economy.com shows that it may be well into 2011 before Austin or, indeed, any sizeable US city shows significant jobs growth. This correlates pretty well with our last recession: the market topped in 2000, it bottomed in 2003, and jobs began to return about 18 months later. In the current recession, the stock market topped at the end of 2007, hit bottom in March of 2009 and here we are, waiting for the jobs to show up again.

Let me mention why this is so important. Jobs are what fuel the kind of population increases that are attractive to real estate investors. As jobs grow and populations rise, people become willing to pay the kind of rental rates that can cover mortgage payments, taxes, and repair bills. Ultimately it is the prosperity of an environment like this that creates healthy growth in property values, since more and more people go for the dream of owning a home. On the other hand, when an area is simply losing jobs more slowly than others, you end up with less people in the area than there are rental units. Now your rental property is compared to others solely based on price and nobody wins in that environment.

My strategy remains the same. I will ultimately relocate to a major US metro area based on its growth in population and jobs. However, I'm not going to try to guess in advance which city that will be. I'm going to keep my finger on the pulse of the monthly data and allow candidate cities to emerge in their own sweet time. The second halves of recessions are like that: months and months of seeming inactivity, and then, POW, the heavens seem to open, corporate budgets are expanded, and jobs look like they're falling out of the sky.

A final note. I may yet relocate in the near term. But if I do, it will likely be because there was a better reason to hang out somewhere else during this current non-growth period of time than here in Orlando. I'll keep you posted.