New Year's Eve - Or Is It?

We Interrupt This Holiday To Bring You A Special Announcement:

The calendar is a useful fiction, meant to serve us - not to be our master. In fact, the earth is not exactly where it was 365.25 days ago, because the Sun is also falling through space as is the Sun's star cluster and the Milky Way itself. It is not December or January or 2012 or 2013. It is "Now": the only time you will ever have.

Two immediate practical consequences of this observation are: You don't ever have to put your life on hold, waiting for a date on a calendar to come around in order to have a new start. And, you're always only as old as you feel you are.

You may now return to your celebrations with the people you love who imagine there are weeks and months and years to pay attention to.

The End of an Era: RIP Zig Ziglar

"You will get all you want in life if you help enough other people to get what they want."
-Zig Ziglar

With Zig Ziglar's death at age 86 today, an era has ended in the Personal Development world. Zig, Mary Kay Ash, and Jim Rohn were all inspired by a man named John Earl Shoaff who dazzled many with his wealth, lifestyle, and philosophy back in the 1960s. All three became inspirations to millions and earned great wealth as motivational speakers in the decades that followed.

Tony Robbins, Jack Canfield (Chicken Soup book series), Brian Tracy and literally hundreds of others who have tried their hand at motivational speaking or writing got their initial impetus from Zig, Mary Kay, and Jim. I myself owe a big debt of gratitude to Mr. Rohn for the difference his words made in my life. It is because of him that I became serious about journaling, goal setting, and taking responsibility for my own success in life regardless of upbringing or circumstances.

When I first heard Jim Rohn speak in 1993, my financial world was so small that I thought $20,000 per year was "making it". Although I was very bright at other subjects, understanding the concept that 'learning new skills that are in higher demand can lead to a high income' eluded me. I was waiting for God to bless me, the economy to get better, a relative to help me out, etc, etc. I guess God did bless me the day I heard Rohn say,

"Whatever happens in life happens to us all. Circumstances are like the wind that blows - you cannot control the wind. But your personal philosophy is like the set of the sail on the boat of your life. Don't wish for a better wind to blow, wish for the wisdom to set a better sail."

It took me a few years to get into this kind of thinking. My first, early goals were very timid. But then I got serious about learning skills and setting income goals (before I was even employed, other than as a waiter while going back to college). By 1997, I was making $32,000 per year. By 2000, I was making over $65,000 per year. Then over $80,000 in 2005 and in 2007, I crossed the six figure mark in anual salary (not including benefits) and have been in that vicinity ever since.

Did I get lucky? You bet I did. Nobody "called" the Internet boom back when I decided to go back to school for computer science in 1995. But there were enough hints of what was to come just by noticing the number of help-wanted ads in that field. That's where my intelligence helped out. But the fact is, I wouldn't even have thought to look at those ads or to re-train for a whole new field of work, if Jim Rohn hadn't spoken into my life.

Sometimes I wonder who will take up the 'influence' mantle of John Earl Shoaff for the people born in the '80s and '90s. Who will be the next generation of voices, perhaps inspired by Tony Robbins, Jack Canfield, Brian Tracy, Mark Victor-Hansen, or even Rhonda Byrne, Deepak Chopra, or Wayne Dyer? Maybe in the Internet age, with TED talks, blogs, YouTube lessons, and so on, a new, a more democratic day has dawned with fewer motivational "stars". That's fine. As long as the message gets out which challenges people similarly to these words, by John Earl Shoaff:

"Lets not be moons, the reflector of light. Lets be suns, the creator of light - the creator of ideas. Because we all have the capacity."

Fall 2012: Prelude To Recession

In my opinion, the U.S. economy has begun a slide into probable recession. This prediction is based on a technical reading of the major stock market averages (Dow Industrial, Nasdaq, S&P 500) as well as analysis of several recent shocks to our economic system. I have "called" these economic movements in the past and occasionally been correct about them. I want to give you, the reader, an opportunity to understand what I'm seeing, so I will use this blog to explain the analysis that happens behind the predictions.

In stock charting, we don't just show the price points making up the chart. We usually also draw a line on the chart showing the average price of the last 50 trading days. Additionally, we draw a 200-day moving average. Taken together, these moving average lines depict the longer-term direction of the price that is being tracked.

In a healthy stock market, the prices of the major indexes stay above their 50-day moving average lines (and the 50-day moving average lines stay above the 200-day moving average lines). This indicates the price is increasing and its long term trend is upward.


Thanks to stockcharts.com

Here is a daily price chart of the S&P 500 Index from late May 2012 to the date of this blog post. We have healthy behavior in portion 1, within the green circle, where the daily price lines are moving upward above the blue line, which is the 50-day moving average line.

A few weeks ago, in portion 2, (yellow circle) we have a warning indicator. The daily values have dropped below their 50-day moving average, but they are still above their 200-day moving average. Stocks and indexes occasionally bread down below their 50-day moving averages but then recover above them. That is not what has happened here.

A few days ago, in portion 3, (red circle) we see a serious warning that the S&P 500 index may have begun a longer-term downward trend. The daily values have crossed below their 200-day moving average. Notice that the index has remained below the warning level for several trading days. The Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial average are both also below their 200-day moving averages and have been there several trading days longer than the S&P 500 index has.

so we start with the facts - reality - the three major indexes have all fallen into the danger zone, and have not recovered so far. To be sure, there have been occasions in the past when they all crossed below the danger thresholds then recovered back up into healthy territory. On the other hand, every recession in this country dating back at least to the Great Depression, has been signaled by the major indexes of the day slipping below their 200-day moving averages and not recovering.

In concert with the stock market danger zone, we have: 1) the "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and federal spending cuts looming, 2) continuing uncertainty regarding solvency in Europe, 3) a recent swell of unemployment due to the destruction from Hurricane Sandy, 4) thousands of troops returning from foreign wars also joining the pool of the unemployed, and 5) Atlas Shrugged - in the form of pissed off Republican business owners retaliating for four more years of Barack Obama by cutting hours and positions to protest what they see as a slide into Socialism.

A deal on the fiscal cliff would certainly give a positive jolt to the economy but it remains to be seen whether that, alone, would provide enough impetus to restore it to the path of slow, gradual growth it had been on prior to November.

Back to My Center, Politically

I'm not really sure which post or image I first responded to on Facebook that made me start sounding like a perpetual Barack Obama supporter the last couple of months. The truth is that I am not. I just felt it was important to take a stand against obviously slanderous information. I guess there's just something in my DNA that rages against intentional misrepresentation. No one may say I have not done the same for Romney when I saw similar distortions.

But I identify most closely with the Libertarian point of view: "Lord, save me from those who try to help me, I can handle my enemies by myself." If the Republican party had had the balls to nominate Ron Paul, I'd be all over that. In the end we need less centralized power, not more. Just think of it - instead of one convenient place for corrupting, pandering lobbyists to go (Washington, DC), just think if they'd have to spread out across all 50 states Capitols. Or, even better, thousands and thousands of county seats. Alas, I may not see that come to pass in my lifetime.

But I know that a Republican party yes man is also not what this country needs in the White House. The Neo-cons still control the Republican party and it is thanks to them we had the runaway spending of the Iraq war and the erosion of our civil liberties in the form of the so-called Patriot Act, warantless wire-tapping, the TSA, etc. If I must choose between a tax-and-spend Democrat or a borrow-and-spend Republican, I will go for the guy who's gonna at least bankrupt us peacefully.

Which brings me to our role in global affairs. I've said it before, I'll say it again: We cannot preserve our Republic while we try to maintain an Empire. The problem with maintaining a Superpower-class military long after the Cold War has ended is that you end up looking for excuses to get a return on your investment. I'm all for strength, but "larger than the next 10 militaries combined" is at least seven or eight times too large. Continually bleeding debt money for this - as well as the Federal entitlement programs in their current forms - will certainly force the hard choices, in a more painful way (like in Greece today), than if we made them today, intentionally.

Frittering Our Lives Away

Today I saw an amusing picture someone shared on a social media website of a zebra clinging to the top of a giraffe's neck, peering over its head into the far distance. The caption asked, "Can you see Friday yet... ?" It seems that all around us, there are messages about wishing we were at some other time or some other place than where we are right now. Like candy, these mental bon-bons are harmless enough as occasional sentiments. But, also like candy, it is easy to over-indulge, leading to consequences one might not expect or prefer.


Used Courtesy of MyCommentSpace.com
Where does this desire not to be "here", "now", come from? How is it that we can live week to week, month to month, year to year, always yearning for some other day or situation to arrive? A good bit of this tendency no doubt comes from our environment. We grow up hearing our parents, relatives, and friends bemoaning their circumstances. We get sent to school where we come to feel that homework is a chore and that looking forward to Friday and the weekend is a normal emotional state. To resist these attitudes is to risk alienation from a vital circle of society. The path of least resistance is to go along with it, adopt the outlook, and mimic acceptable catch-phrases, such as, "Thank God it's Friday!" Well before the weekend is over, it hits us - Monday is coming! Soon, whatever joy we may have been experiencing gets overshadowed by the dread we've learned to affect from those we love. By the time we join the working world, it is almost a competition, at the coffee break, to be the first one to exclaim, "I hate Mondays!"

But not all of the blame can be laid at the feet of our acquaintances and institutions. Some of us take the ball and run considerably farther. We learn that we can distinguish ourselves by the thought and creativity we pour into our expressions of elation or vehemence over the periods of time approaching in the near future. There's a cost to doing this, however, and that cost adds up. Expressing ourselves in these ways tends to define us, in the minds of those we spend time with as "John, the guy who loves Fridays" or "Maria, the girl who hates Mondays". And, having trained others to see us in those ways, we tend to then reinforce that image as part of our own search for meaning and belonging. We can be counted on to say or create or share ever-cleverer expressions of ourselves as people who somehow get by in life based on the promise of a better day to come - like the caption on the photo of the zebra.  In time, we believe this definition ourselves.

You have undoubtedly asked yourself some form of the age-old question, "If I could go back in time to a specific point in my life, which one would I choose to make it all turn out differently?" The mind loves contemplating hypotheticals like this. And yet, the joke is on whoever asks that question because doing so virtually guarantees you will ask it again in the future and come up with: the current period in your life. Why is that? Because to contemplate it at all is a form of escape that steals your focus away from the present moment. It robs you of the presence of mind required to soberly assess whether your current situation and activity are steering you toward the kind of life you would rather live. And just now we have gotten to the heart of the matter. Escape. Somehow, many of us have bought the message that we're just supposed to press forward in a life filled with circumstances and situations we never would have chosen if we had known better the first time around. Contemplating all of the disruption and energy it would take to press the "Reset" button, face the stark, naked unknown, and escape the gravity of expectations from all the loved ones we've trained to accept us in our default form just seems so... daunting. So we take our minds off of the subject. We distract ourselves with gadgets, amuse ourselves with content, numb ourselves with substances, and press on. No wonder Thoreau made the observation (still true today), "The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation."  Living such a life is unpleasant, so we find ways to not notice that it's happening - chiefly in the form of occupying our thoughts about the past or the future.

I have come to believe that the attitude one has toward life is the most precious mental commodity he or she possesses. More valuable - by far - than a sharp wit or a quick memory. Intellect and recall will always serve to the best of their ability. But the thing that they serve - the one who calls the shots - is your attitude. The good news is, unlike your other mental faculties, attitude can be changed. And yet, how rare it is to meet someone who actively works to improve his or her attitude toward life in adulthood! I heard someone once define "personality" as "the set of social strategies for survival you came up with in Middle School." Are you the Joker in your group? The leader? The cynic, the quiet one, the critic, the facilitator? When was the last time you examined the fundamental building blocks of how you respond to life and asked the question, "Does this way of expressing myself really serve me anymore?" If the answer is, "Longer than a year", I suggest it's time to get your journal out, jot the question down, and let it work its magic. You'd be amazed at what you come up with when you take yourself seriously enough to call yourself on your own assumptions and allow what is really important to come up to the surface.

A surprising and delightful benefit of learning to focus in on the present moment is that life seems to slow down considerably. A lot of the mental chatter you needed to sustain in order to distract yourself from your former sense of drudgery just melts away. The daily commute is no longer an unpleasant necessity for getting from point A to point B. Instead, it becomes a fascinating adventure that's new each day. You stop avoiding "certain people" and take on the outlook that you're going to deal with them as if you were meeting them for the very first time. You give that restaurant another try, even though they messed up your order once upon a time. And so on. Perhaps some of this sounds far-fetched or even naive. People who have invested their lives in cleverly pointing out snarky angles and flaws in every situation might make fun of you. Friends who've known you for years might wonder what the hell has gotten into you. I guess there are trade-offs for every path one may take. But for me, the price has been worth it.

I get on the elevator at work. A co-worker I've never seen before exclaims, "Thank God, it's Friday!" The door opens at my floor and I reply, "Oh yeah - Friday is one of my favorite days of the week!" I step out of the car then I turn and add, "Just like Monday." The look on his face as the door closes: Priceless.

My First New Song In Over A Decade

Something about today being Good Friday unblocked a latent avalanche of creativity in me. This is the first new song I've written in over 10 years. The words "I used to cry when I heard you died" have been with me for much longer, but it just wasn't time to set them into jewelpiece of a whole song until now. Why now? Because instead of feeling desperation about them like I did in my 20s or contempt about them like I did in my 30s, I now feel a calm serenity.

Look What We've Done To You, Jesus
words and music by Bernard Valor
(c) 2012 All Rights Reserved

Look what we've done to you, Jesus
Look what we've done to the things you said
Chasing a ticket to heaven
We pass by your baskets of living bread

I used to cry when I heard you died
I used to cry, but now it feels, kind of cold inside -- 'cause all the preachers lied!

You taught us to love those who hate us
Asked us to turn the other cheek
But you must have been mistaken,
'Cause that'd only make us feel dumb and weak

We'd rather have the prize behind door number 3
Yeah, we'll take the the grace and all the mercy
Because you died on the tree --
Now won't you please let us be? [Ohhhhhh!]

Look what we've done to you, Jesus
Look what we've done to the words you said
Transformed you into a "savior"
Lost all the meaning you might have had

I used to cry when I heard you died
Nails in your hands, thorny crown,
Spear thrust in your side.
Yeah, that's why-y I cried

But that ain't the worst we did to you!
No -- we made you a god then we worshiped you.
Threw out the words that you taught us and made them a LIE....
We didn't even try!

Look what we've done to you Jesus