Fall 2013 US Economic Prediction

I am beginning to convince myself that the US economy is headed for a 3-5 year window of high sustained growth. Here are a few reasons why:

Recall that 2008 was the last year that people with terrible credit could obtain easy housing credit. 2008 + 5 is 2013, which means that this is the last year that banks have to deal with uncertainty about large numbers of borrowers with cheaper 5-year Adjustable Rate mortgages going through foreclosure. The orderly winding down of these toxic assets will enable local and national banks to open up their reserves for legitimate business lending more freely.

Also, competition for high-tech workers is really heating up in the job market. I'm getting the kinds of unsolicited phone calls and emails I got back in 1998 and 2005. Yes, this portends a future bubble-burst, but one that is several years out, with the actual, you know, bubble, in the meantime.

Finally, the stock market has shown uncanny resilience in the face of multiple fiscal crises from Washington over the past 10 months. The right kind of stocks are heading in the right direction: temporary worker companies like Manpower and for-profit education companies like DeVry.

(disclaimer: I don't have any financial interest in either of the stocks mentioned except perhaps accidentally via my employer's 401(k) benefit)