A Different Lesson in Stock Market Humility

From an emotional point of view, I shouldn't have looked, I really shouldn't have.

But I did.

In the three day period since I sold DUG, it rocketed from the 42% gain I locked in, to a 95% gain from my original buy point. And it's still not showing signs of weakness.

Dad's voice in my mind is asking, "What did you learn?" and I've come up with an answer. If I had held on to the stock into the last half hour of the trading day (instead of selling it mid-afternoon) I would have been able to see a clearer picture of its behavior for the day. In DUG's case, this would have shown me that there was no clear sell signal and it is likely I wouldn't have sold.

Jesse Livermore, a famous (or infamous, to some) stock investor at the beginning of the 1900s used to say, "People fear when they should hope, and hope when they should fear." I used to think this was a kind of indictment on those other traders who are somehow weak. But now I see that he was just making an honest observation about how we all act sometimes.

T. Harv Eker writes about each person having a financial thermostat that is defined by his or her upper and lower financial comfort zones. If the person's financial situation goes below or above that range, he or she tends to subconsciously "correct" it so that the comfort zone is maintained. Evidently, my upper comfort zone for stock trading profits is somewhere around 42%. Well worth noticing.

The McCain Nausea Reflex - Guilt By Association?

With the 2008 election coming up, I'm asking myself, "Who will best lead the USA as president in the next four years?"  From where I sit, it's not as cut-and-dried a decision as one might think.

I am a believer in limited central government - as you might have guessed from this previous post.  One of the reasons why I am so disappointed with the current US administration is that "W" won me over during his campaign in 2000 with his talk of "learning the lessons of Vietnam" and "reaching across the aisle".  I had no idea the neo-conservative branch of the Republican party would render him into little more than a goofy-talking sock puppet mascot for their agenda of global economic and military supremacy.  Yeah, this from a guy who bought the Iraq WMD argument and voted for "W" again in 2004.

Of the two major candidates, John McCain embodies my political and philosophic views more accurately. (of all cadidates, that would be Ron Paul)  Yet, I am just as susceptible to a reaction of disgust for what we have all been through in the past eight years (let alone the shocking meltdown of the US financial system in recent weeks) as anyone else.  In 1993, the Democratic leadership of the House of Representatives was implicated in a sordid fraud scheme that involved the House post office.  That straw was enough to break the camel's back and give the House of Representatives a Republican majority for the first time in 40 years.  1980 gave us Reagan Democrats and I suspect 2008 will have its share of Obama Republicans.

And yet, I wonder, is all this reactionary decision-making serving us well?   Taking a step back from the whole scene, it is highly unlikely that a John McCain presidency would look anything like "W"'s regime.  He's not one of the Washington good ol' boys with a hundred butts to kiss, he wouldn't have a rabid war hawk with ties to the defense industry as a VP, and there isn't a snowball's chance in hell he (or any other Republican president for the next decade) will get a rubber-stamping legislature.  Put simply, just because he voted the party line 90% of the time doesn't make him a "W" clone.  It makes him a Republican.  George H. Bush's presidency didn't look anything like Reagan's did before him.

A Democrat president with a Democrat-majority congress could lead to the kind of "We've got a mandate" mentality that leads to cures far worse than the diseases they intend to cure.

Well, I'll tip my hand.  All I want for Christmas is some old-fashioned gridlock in Washington for the next four to eight years.  Like the kind we had under Clinton, where congress would squash the president's agenda and then the president would veto congress's bills.  As far as I'm concerned, that was a key contributor to the prosperity we experienced from 1995 to 2000.  And if this somehow manages to suffocate the global military hegemony we've got going on (long after its purpose, winning the Cold War, died out) as well as atrophy the federal bureaucracy by oh, say one third to one half, that would be nice too.  OK, now I'm really dreaming, but hey - why not?

See, my problem is, I'm just old enough to remember the reactions to oil, war, and power which swept Jimmy Carter into the presidency.  Such a great smile.  Such a thoughtful, gracious person.  Such a disaster for the country, policy-wise.  Whoops, that looks like guilt by association as well.  Maybe I'll just stick to my guns and write in "Ron Paul" on my ballot.

Not Too Shabby

Recently, I blogged about holding on to a security during the US economic bailout crisis. I can now reveal that I was holding shares of DUG, the ultrashort ETF for US oil industry stocks. I sold my shares yesterday and locked in a 42% gain.

I was confident enough in the weakening demand for oil (due to turbulence in the general economy) that I did not check up on my position while I was out of town last week on my retreat. Yet I knew the market might rally once the wall street bailout went through. It turns out that the turmoil in the European credit markets bought my ETF a little more upside Monday and Tuesday.

Stocks headed lower yesterday as well. But when the Fed announced a rate cut coordinated with rate cuts in Europe, the S&P 500 seemed to rally and at 2:30 PM, DUG was trading near the bottom of its intraday range on higher trading volume. In other words, it looked like more people who held DUG were starting to doubt its value than the ones who felt it would go higher. With all the uncertainty in the economy, I decided to pull the trigger and lock in my gain.

Maddeningly, the general markets turned bearish from 3:30 to 4:00 PM and DUG ended up right in the middle of its trading range today - not a clear "sell" signal after all. Nevertheless, I feel good about following the instincts I've developed as a result of studying the market over the past 10 years. That goes for holding it last week as well as selling it yesterday.

Journey Within: Wilderness Getaway 2008

Five years ago, I went on a week-long trip to Hawaii and took the journals I had written with me. (five years' worth) I spent my days reading my life like a book, noticing tendencies about myself, and distilling the insights into a foundation for intentional growth that propelled me in in a very positive direction.  18 months after that trip, it was hard to recognize me as the same guy in the areas of self-worth, ambition, and tolerance.  For example, I no longer approached dating out of fear of loneliness or a position of need.  My deeply felt position had become, "I am loveable, and I generously share my loveableness with others."  The results in my life were dramatic, from income to relationships to my sense of purpose and beyond.

I now have five more years of journals in my library.  I decided at the beginning of this week to get away for eight days, starting Sunday Sept. 28, and repeat this process. This time I'm renting a remote cabin in the mountains of West Virginia.  No Internet, no cell phone reception.  Just what doctor ordered.

Back in 1992, I heard Jim Rohn talk about journaling.  He said, "Too many people try to just get through the day.  I've got something better for you to go for: learn to get from the day. Capture the insights and ideas.  Don't trust your memory."  I can be a bit slow on the uptake (as can we all) so I didn't formally start keeping a journal until 1998.  In fact, my first journal entry went something like this: "I probably won't keep this up, but here's what happened today..."  I've since learned not to dismiss a day of small beginnings in my life.  Starting journaling earlier would definitely be one of those things I would counsel my younger self to.

My dearly beloved friends and family think this trip is about my next career step, and to be fair, that's how I've presented it to them.  But quite beyond that, I foresee it as a launch pad for areas of personal growth I can't even imagine as I write this.  Wiping the white board clean and starting fresh with a clean set of markers.

Playing Chicken With Wall Street During the Crisis

I've been a stock investor for 10 years and I personally trade the stocks that make up my IRA.

A couple weeks ago, I closed out a position in a technology stock after making a respectable gain.  Stocks in a different industry sector began to show some signs of weakness, so I used the money that was freed up from selling the tech stock to bet against that industry using what is known as an ultrashort exchange-traded fund (ETF).  This is like a mutual fund that goes up if the stocks it is following go down.  The beauty of these shorting ETFs is that it is possible to trade shares of them in an IRA, whereas regular shorting is not allowed in an IRA.

(No, it wasn't the financial industry I bet against, or you'd be reading now about how surprised I was that the SEC prohibitited short selling of financial company stocks last week)

My position in this ultrashort ETF has fluctuated from being up 20% just before the economic crisis was announced last Thursday to being down 10% today when congressional leaders anounced that there is basic agreement on the framework for an investment banking bailout.  I've asked myself a few times  why I didn't just exit the stock market when the crisis was announced.  After all, there is an old saying on Wall Street: "Bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."

And yet, there is a reason why I've maintained my position in the shorting ETF.  Even though it has declined a good bit from where it was last week, it has done so on drastically lower daily trading volume than average.  So, far fewer people now think it's a bad idea to bet against this particular industry than those who thought it was a good idea when I got in.  This has intrigued me, and convinced me that the actual destiny of my investment will not become clear until the daily trading volume returns to normal.  

When I look at the basics - the fact that this industry's stocks peaked in price last month, that the recent strength of the dollar caused further erosion, etc - it seems to me that the fundamental reasons for investing the way I did are all still there.  So I'm not blinking yet.  Wall Street has certainly humbled me in the past.  But I feel that now is a good time to "keep your head when all around you are losing theirs..." ask Kipling mused.

The Cure Is Worse Than The Disease

Velcome to Soviet United States of America!

In order for protekting our citizens and their interests, we have establish strong centralized institutions with broad authority over various aspects of their lives. Our latest plan is one of best ever. You vill like.

Effidently, bad, evil, greedy corporations tricked millions of Americans into signink legal contract documents known in the venacular as "mortgages". Ve know this must have been bad idea since etymology of vord "mortgage" transliterates into "death note". No von would ever sign death note, yes? Vell, anyway, by usink of flashy, hypnotizing marketing campaigns, these nasty corporations lured our dear dependents, I mean, citizens, into takink on of financial obligations linked to value of their homes. It is fundamental right for all Americans that home value should go up, up, up, and never hit snag. Somehow, however, snag did occur. We're not too sure who caused snag, perhaps CIA can look into this. It gets compicated and I von't bore you now vith details about how Wall Street firms ended up owning bundles and bundles of these death notes. But anyway, Wall Street firms have been sufferink also from snag.

Normally, businesses are allowed to make bets with their capital, flourishing when bets vin and dissapearink when bets lose. Ve dislike this chaotic arrangement yet citizens showed up in town squares with firebrands and pitchforks when we tried to interfere previously. This time, however, talkink heads on televised finance programs have convinced the people that certain of our Wall Street companies must not to be allowed for dissapearink. So here is plan. We, the caretakers of the American citizens, shall create federal entity. Led by vice diktator Paulson, it vill have authority for absorbink these bundles of mortgages from Wall Street firms. No pesky courts or lawsuits vill be allowed to interfere with vice diktator's dispensing of the death notes. So now, instead of the company dissapearink, only debt from company's bad bets will dissapear. It is thing of beauty, no?

Some organizers of previous pitchfork protests are voicink concern about plan. These are same guys who got upset when we started listenink in on phone calls without warrants, created authority to arrest citizens and not let them tell their spouses or lawyers what the charges were, and used army for toppling of foreign government. Yet it seems that crises mute the voices of dissent. I vonder what crisis will open the door for next big plan. Who knows? But for sure we will be ready for respondink to it with smart ideas for new centralized caretakink.

Do svidaniya comrades, and God bless the USA!

A Test Of The Emergency Disappointment System II

Yesterday marked the abrupt end of my professional relationship with the computer game company I joined in mid-May. (and relocated across the country for) I won't pretend that my emotions are not upset, there is presently a sense of sadness and disappointment that the collaboration didn't work out.

Mozart is said to have composed entire symphonies in his head before furiously scribbling them down. Another anecdote has Michelangelo saying he "saw the angel in the marble and then carved to set him free". This is how I write software - I grok a given system as a whole over a period of time and then expend myself in a fit of creative coding that sometimes spans 24-hour periods. I like me this way - it is my own personal garden patch of genius. (we all have one somewhere, neglected or not)

I kind of wish I had done a better job communicating my style to my handlers at the company. I must have seemed a bit insubordinate when they asked to see incremental progress occurring every day in the codebase and all they got back was (in effect), "Just wait, you'll see what I can do!" In the end, the system I was working on was proven and I got buy-in for the next steps, but someone somewhere had already decided to drop the hammer. The termination was handled by the company's legal counsel, "without cause"; nobody I worked for directly attended the exit interview or gave any feedback. It was certainly well within their rights to handle the matter this way - like virtually all Americans my employment arrangement was "at will", meaning I could have left them at any time for no given reason as well.

I say "kind of wish", yet I don't really wish. Like Bono of U2, "I still haven't found what I'm looking for." I'm looking for a situation where the Mozarts and Michelangelos of code can brood and spew their masterworks together with the only criteria being whether it is beautiful and it works when it all comes together. Perhaps that stand will push me into Open Source or to starting my own technology ventures. (something my friends must be bored of hearing me perpetually threaten to do)

I am satisfied that both I and my former employer each did his best. The company is made up of a very sharp group of people and I would not want to be in their market space when they launch their product.

Yes, I used the word "disappointed" in the first paragraph and that is what is real today. Yet it is not "I" who am disappointed. Though the emotions are upset, though they calm and tempest and calm again, the self is not the emotions. The self is the one who observes and honors them and then whispers, "This, too, shall pass."