Posts
Miss Baltimore flew down to Orlando. She and I are driving to the Florida panhandle to visit her mother's family for Thanksgiving. Here's hoping all my readers enjoy a great holiday!
What I am most thankful for: That I matter to those who matter to me.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Fall 2009: Stock Market Likely to Decline
If you have exposure to the stock market, you may want to dial it back to a money market fund or cash. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ composite indexes pierced below important levels of support today. (their 50-day moving averages) This often happens when the market is going to decline for a period of time.
All in all, not a terrible run since March when the market turned positive: a 58% increase for the NASDAQ and a 45% increase for the S&P 500.
Several companies declined sharply this week after reporting earnings that just barely missed estimates. Some declined even though they beat their earnings estimates. This is typical behavior when the market is turning south, when even good news is not enough to keep stocks moving up.
I have sold all the stocks in my personal portfolio and am looking now for opportunities to make money on declines.
Remember - don't blame the government or your retirement plan company if you fail to keep an eye on your nest egg!
All in all, not a terrible run since March when the market turned positive: a 58% increase for the NASDAQ and a 45% increase for the S&P 500.
Several companies declined sharply this week after reporting earnings that just barely missed estimates. Some declined even though they beat their earnings estimates. This is typical behavior when the market is turning south, when even good news is not enough to keep stocks moving up.
I have sold all the stocks in my personal portfolio and am looking now for opportunities to make money on declines.
Remember - don't blame the government or your retirement plan company if you fail to keep an eye on your nest egg!
Monday, October 12, 2009
Not-As-Bad No Substitute for Good
After leaving my full-time job in September, my inital inclination was to immediately relocate to a faster growing city. This notion was influenced by two major hypotheses: 1) If I start a business, I want to do it in a market with plenty of demand for my products or services. 2) If I invest in real estate, I want to buy in areas where the rents will produce great cash flow even after paying for the mortgage, taxes, and repairs. Orlando has a lot going for it, but it's been hit pretty badly by our current recession. No. I reasoned that since I had nothing tying me to Orlando, I should select the best US metro area I could find, start from scratch there, and allow its rising tide to lift my boat as well.
A funny thing happened on the way to relocation-ville. As I researched cities according to their US Census Bureau growth statistics and monthly unemployment rates, I got a bit sidetracked from my primary criteria by the noise of the data. At first Atlanta looked attractive due to its high population growth from 2000 to 2008. When I discovered it had a higher unemployment rate than the national average, however, its luster faded. More recently, Austin, TX seemed promising due to its combination of high population growth and lower unemployment rate.
But digging deeper into Austin's data has revealed that while unemployment is lower there, it is still increasing on a monthly basis. "Slower slowing" is not the criterion I started with. I require growth. Data published on USA Today's website from Moody's economy.com shows that it may be well into 2011 before Austin or, indeed, any sizeable US city shows significant jobs growth. This correlates pretty well with our last recession: the market topped in 2000, it bottomed in 2003, and jobs began to return about 18 months later. In the current recession, the stock market topped at the end of 2007, hit bottom in March of 2009 and here we are, waiting for the jobs to show up again.
Let me mention why this is so important. Jobs are what fuel the kind of population increases that are attractive to real estate investors. As jobs grow and populations rise, people become willing to pay the kind of rental rates that can cover mortgage payments, taxes, and repair bills. Ultimately it is the prosperity of an environment like this that creates healthy growth in property values, since more and more people go for the dream of owning a home. On the other hand, when an area is simply losing jobs more slowly than others, you end up with less people in the area than there are rental units. Now your rental property is compared to others solely based on price and nobody wins in that environment.
My strategy remains the same. I will ultimately relocate to a major US metro area based on its growth in population and jobs. However, I'm not going to try to guess in advance which city that will be. I'm going to keep my finger on the pulse of the monthly data and allow candidate cities to emerge in their own sweet time. The second halves of recessions are like that: months and months of seeming inactivity, and then, POW, the heavens seem to open, corporate budgets are expanded, and jobs look like they're falling out of the sky.
A final note. I may yet relocate in the near term. But if I do, it will likely be because there was a better reason to hang out somewhere else during this current non-growth period of time than here in Orlando. I'll keep you posted.
A funny thing happened on the way to relocation-ville. As I researched cities according to their US Census Bureau growth statistics and monthly unemployment rates, I got a bit sidetracked from my primary criteria by the noise of the data. At first Atlanta looked attractive due to its high population growth from 2000 to 2008. When I discovered it had a higher unemployment rate than the national average, however, its luster faded. More recently, Austin, TX seemed promising due to its combination of high population growth and lower unemployment rate.
But digging deeper into Austin's data has revealed that while unemployment is lower there, it is still increasing on a monthly basis. "Slower slowing" is not the criterion I started with. I require growth. Data published on USA Today's website from Moody's economy.com shows that it may be well into 2011 before Austin or, indeed, any sizeable US city shows significant jobs growth. This correlates pretty well with our last recession: the market topped in 2000, it bottomed in 2003, and jobs began to return about 18 months later. In the current recession, the stock market topped at the end of 2007, hit bottom in March of 2009 and here we are, waiting for the jobs to show up again.
Let me mention why this is so important. Jobs are what fuel the kind of population increases that are attractive to real estate investors. As jobs grow and populations rise, people become willing to pay the kind of rental rates that can cover mortgage payments, taxes, and repair bills. Ultimately it is the prosperity of an environment like this that creates healthy growth in property values, since more and more people go for the dream of owning a home. On the other hand, when an area is simply losing jobs more slowly than others, you end up with less people in the area than there are rental units. Now your rental property is compared to others solely based on price and nobody wins in that environment.
My strategy remains the same. I will ultimately relocate to a major US metro area based on its growth in population and jobs. However, I'm not going to try to guess in advance which city that will be. I'm going to keep my finger on the pulse of the monthly data and allow candidate cities to emerge in their own sweet time. The second halves of recessions are like that: months and months of seeming inactivity, and then, POW, the heavens seem to open, corporate budgets are expanded, and jobs look like they're falling out of the sky.
A final note. I may yet relocate in the near term. But if I do, it will likely be because there was a better reason to hang out somewhere else during this current non-growth period of time than here in Orlando. I'll keep you posted.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
View From the Ground: Atlanta
They say the three keys to business success are, "Location, location, location." Atlanta, Georgia has been showing up on a lot of "Top 10" lists lately, for entrepreneurship, lifestyle, growth, etc. Annual data from the US Census bureau shows that it is certainly one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country. I decided to take action and travel to Atlanta myself to get a first-hand glimpse of the city and the surrounding areas. I've just completed four days there and my impressions are very favorable.
There are a number of neighborhoods like Decatur, Virginia Highlands, and, yes, even the downtown district where shops and restaurants are convenient to the walking public. This feature appeals to me as a businessman because it fosters that viral, word-of-mouth buzz that's just harder to attract if you're located in a strip mall. However, strip malls have their place too. In the numerous and prospering suburban communities along what's being called the "I-85 Corridor" to northwest of the city, I observed a great deal of business demand in the form of full shopping center parking lots and decent waiting lines in front of midrange to upscale restaurants.
While in Atlanta, I scored a meeting with the Vice President of Economic Development at the Atlanta Chamber of Commerce and he supplied me with key information on everything from business licensing to demographic trends to commercial real estate resources.
All in all, a successful trip - I came away with a great picture of what Atlanta can offer in terms of retail business demand and growth trends. Incidentally, the people of the city were friendly and helpful, regardless of which neighborhood I visited. Whether or not Atlanta is my future destination remains to be seen. There are a couple of other promising metro markets I plan on visiting before making my decision.
There are a number of neighborhoods like Decatur, Virginia Highlands, and, yes, even the downtown district where shops and restaurants are convenient to the walking public. This feature appeals to me as a businessman because it fosters that viral, word-of-mouth buzz that's just harder to attract if you're located in a strip mall. However, strip malls have their place too. In the numerous and prospering suburban communities along what's being called the "I-85 Corridor" to northwest of the city, I observed a great deal of business demand in the form of full shopping center parking lots and decent waiting lines in front of midrange to upscale restaurants.
While in Atlanta, I scored a meeting with the Vice President of Economic Development at the Atlanta Chamber of Commerce and he supplied me with key information on everything from business licensing to demographic trends to commercial real estate resources.
All in all, a successful trip - I came away with a great picture of what Atlanta can offer in terms of retail business demand and growth trends. Incidentally, the people of the city were friendly and helpful, regardless of which neighborhood I visited. Whether or not Atlanta is my future destination remains to be seen. There are a couple of other promising metro markets I plan on visiting before making my decision.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Cutting the Employment Cord
Yesterday was my last official day at EA Orlando, two weeks after I gave them notice. There was nothing wrong with the company or the position. It's just that I felt like I was going to burst unless I put myself "out there" and took a chance at creating a business of my own. I am fortunate to have money saved up so I could live on it for a few years (with a fairly tight budget) if I needed to.
I'm doing research on a handful of opportunities, all of them original business ideas. One of them is to emulate Fred DeLuca's (the founder of Subway Sandwiches) success by starting a fast food concept that can be refined into a system at one store, expanded locally, and later developed into a franchise opportunity. Another idea is to take my considerable expertise and create a new technology product or service - this would take more time but would have the potential for a much bigger payoff. You know me, I want it all - perhaps I can start the fast food shop, get it rolling with a good management team and then focus on developing the technology product.
Every job I've ever worked has been trouble simply because when I see ways for a company's processes to be improved I don't keep my mouth shut. On the contrary, I've been the epitome of the boy who called out, "The Emperor is naked!" It is only fair to the fine men and women who have had the challenge of trying to manage me that I remove myself from the employee pool and take a shot at being the Emperor. Interestingly - my way has worked out well when I've worked at startup companies where it's fine to chit-chat with the President and the Chief Technology Officer. I guess I just don't "get" turf wars and office politics - it all seems like a bunch of unnecessary friction that slows down the process of innovation and continuous improvement. I understand that there are many people who do "get" these things and who are willing to work around them in exchange for stable employment. I am very glad for such people - after all, my future companies are going to need managers and employees too.
In a way, it all boils down to this: Although I have finally come to accept that I cannot escape structure, I don't have to spend my life struggling against somebody else's structure. I have the option of creating my own structure - one that pleases me, one that I can live with and thrive in.
I'm doing research on a handful of opportunities, all of them original business ideas. One of them is to emulate Fred DeLuca's (the founder of Subway Sandwiches) success by starting a fast food concept that can be refined into a system at one store, expanded locally, and later developed into a franchise opportunity. Another idea is to take my considerable expertise and create a new technology product or service - this would take more time but would have the potential for a much bigger payoff. You know me, I want it all - perhaps I can start the fast food shop, get it rolling with a good management team and then focus on developing the technology product.
Every job I've ever worked has been trouble simply because when I see ways for a company's processes to be improved I don't keep my mouth shut. On the contrary, I've been the epitome of the boy who called out, "The Emperor is naked!" It is only fair to the fine men and women who have had the challenge of trying to manage me that I remove myself from the employee pool and take a shot at being the Emperor. Interestingly - my way has worked out well when I've worked at startup companies where it's fine to chit-chat with the President and the Chief Technology Officer. I guess I just don't "get" turf wars and office politics - it all seems like a bunch of unnecessary friction that slows down the process of innovation and continuous improvement. I understand that there are many people who do "get" these things and who are willing to work around them in exchange for stable employment. I am very glad for such people - after all, my future companies are going to need managers and employees too.
In a way, it all boils down to this: Although I have finally come to accept that I cannot escape structure, I don't have to spend my life struggling against somebody else's structure. I have the option of creating my own structure - one that pleases me, one that I can live with and thrive in.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Well That Was A Short Nap
The stock market has come roaring back in the last couple of trading sessions from a mild downturn that only lasted about a month. Now, one or two up days does not a trend make. However, the volume of trade and the percent increase in the general indexes makes it pretty clear (to me, at least) that this is the beginning of something interesting.
I've re-entered the market with positions in travel, retail, rental car, and (I can't get over them) Chinese online gaming stocks. If you have been sitting on the sidelines with your retirement funds, I'd definitely encourage you to speak with a personal finance professional about re-entering the market at this time.
No-load index mutual funds for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ might be relatively stress-free candidates if you agree with me and wish to participate in the market's apparent upturn.
Disclaimer: I am not a personal finance professional and this information does not constitute an offer to sell investment products. These opinions are my own. You are responsible for your own decisions - Hell, I have trouble keeping my own shoelaces tied!
I've re-entered the market with positions in travel, retail, rental car, and (I can't get over them) Chinese online gaming stocks. If you have been sitting on the sidelines with your retirement funds, I'd definitely encourage you to speak with a personal finance professional about re-entering the market at this time.
No-load index mutual funds for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ might be relatively stress-free candidates if you agree with me and wish to participate in the market's apparent upturn.
Disclaimer: I am not a personal finance professional and this information does not constitute an offer to sell investment products. These opinions are my own. You are responsible for your own decisions - Hell, I have trouble keeping my own shoelaces tied!
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Locking In the Gains of 1H 2009
I sold all of my stock holdings this week since my instincts tell me the market has decided to take a breather. The major indexes were down more that one percent two days in a row recently. (although on tame volume) The market has had a nice run up since mid-March, it's about time for it to digest its gains.
Here's how I did in this period: Shanda Interactive (SNDA) +24%, Net Ease (NTES) +34%, Chanyou (CYOU) +72%. (you read that right, seventy-two percent)
I'm half tempted to dig into my savings, fire my employer, and strike out on my own to seek fame and fortune. But I've gained just enough maturity to realize this would be a reaction based on the hubris of my recent market success. That success is about five percent due to my brains, ten percent due to my bravery in the shadow of difficult economic times, and eighty-five percent due to the fact that a rising tide raises all boats. The key was to get into the market when I did and let it do the magic it does when it is in an upswing. The brains part was noticing that Asian gaming stocks were some of the darlings of the spring rally.
Hubris-avoidance aside, I'm enjoying my day job. I look forward to the process of developing the online game that my team is creating. I intend to achieve the kind of satisfaction that only comes from collaborating with others to accomplish a challenging goal. It is not without relevance that the salary I'm drawing will help me save up additional capital so that I'm better prepared for my eventual - inevitable - enterpreneurial siezure. (as Michael Gerber calls it in his famous "E-Myth" books
Here's how I did in this period: Shanda Interactive (SNDA) +24%, Net Ease (NTES) +34%, Chanyou (CYOU) +72%. (you read that right, seventy-two percent)
I'm half tempted to dig into my savings, fire my employer, and strike out on my own to seek fame and fortune. But I've gained just enough maturity to realize this would be a reaction based on the hubris of my recent market success. That success is about five percent due to my brains, ten percent due to my bravery in the shadow of difficult economic times, and eighty-five percent due to the fact that a rising tide raises all boats. The key was to get into the market when I did and let it do the magic it does when it is in an upswing. The brains part was noticing that Asian gaming stocks were some of the darlings of the spring rally.
Hubris-avoidance aside, I'm enjoying my day job. I look forward to the process of developing the online game that my team is creating. I intend to achieve the kind of satisfaction that only comes from collaborating with others to accomplish a challenging goal. It is not without relevance that the salary I'm drawing will help me save up additional capital so that I'm better prepared for my eventual - inevitable - enterpreneurial siezure. (as Michael Gerber calls it in his famous "E-Myth" books
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Remebering June 4, 1989
Twenty years ago this week, hundreds of Chinese pro-democracy student demonstrators paid the ultimate price for their courage to stand up against the corruption and repression of their government. I haven't often reflected on the events of that magical summer which heralded the end of world Communism. But all it took was a photo in the news this week of that solitary Chinese student standing peacefully yet defiantly in front of a column of tanks to bring back a rush of deep emotions. My guts wrenched, my lungs heaved, my tears flowed, and I was 21 again - full of idealism and belief in the ultimate triumph of what is good. Connected, in some mysterious way, with my brothers and sisters from that time in Warsaw, and Bucharest, and East Berlin, and Beijing, and Moscow.
It is, frankly, irrelevant to ask whether the Tianenman Square massacre "accomplished" anything useful. Pundits will debate whether or not it was a wake-up call to the leadership of the Chinese communist party, or whether it helped lead to the years of economic prosperity that many more Chinese citizens now enjoy. What it means to me is that our species occasionally surprises itself in bright, shining moments when nothing matters to us more than the freedom of the human spirit. We cast off the conniving, calculating, resignation we feign (in order to "get by" in modern society) for something far greater and worthier. We put everything the world has told us is valuable at risk in order to win a prize that is impossible to justify or even quantify with mere numbers or arguments.
As Jim Reeves used to sing, "Life goes on and this old world just keeps on turning." There are jobs to do and spouses to love and kids to raise and bills to pay. These incredible events rise and fall and rise again when they are called for. But I was quite surprised by how viscerally and profoundly I could feel the emotions of my 21 year-old self. Perhaps you will experience this some day. When you do, do yourself a favor and feel it fully. Let the tears flow and the lungs heave. It is good practice for keeping the human spirit free.
It is, frankly, irrelevant to ask whether the Tianenman Square massacre "accomplished" anything useful. Pundits will debate whether or not it was a wake-up call to the leadership of the Chinese communist party, or whether it helped lead to the years of economic prosperity that many more Chinese citizens now enjoy. What it means to me is that our species occasionally surprises itself in bright, shining moments when nothing matters to us more than the freedom of the human spirit. We cast off the conniving, calculating, resignation we feign (in order to "get by" in modern society) for something far greater and worthier. We put everything the world has told us is valuable at risk in order to win a prize that is impossible to justify or even quantify with mere numbers or arguments.
As Jim Reeves used to sing, "Life goes on and this old world just keeps on turning." There are jobs to do and spouses to love and kids to raise and bills to pay. These incredible events rise and fall and rise again when they are called for. But I was quite surprised by how viscerally and profoundly I could feel the emotions of my 21 year-old self. Perhaps you will experience this some day. When you do, do yourself a favor and feel it fully. Let the tears flow and the lungs heave. It is good practice for keeping the human spirit free.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Taking My Measly 17% Gain
One of the Asian gaming stocks I bought at the end of March was up 30% two days ago. Yesterday, however, a sell-off occurred and almost half of that paper profit vanished.
I watched the stock intermittently through the day as I was working. Near the end of the trading session, I had a decision to make: should I sell it? (to lock in the 17% gain that remained) or hold on to it? (hoping for a recovery in the future) It was an especially tough call to make because the trading volume was essentially equal to the previous day's volume. If the volume had been lower, that would have indicated more clearly to stay in the stock. If it had been higher, indicating a "distribution" day, that would have indicated more clearly to get out.
4:00 PM drew ever closer. The volume was neck-and-neck - how to make the call? Well, I had recently listened to a podcast interview by Bill O'Neil on investors.com. He had made a casual comment about having good sell rules that stuck with me. He said, "Stocks are kind of like people, when they act strange there's usually something wrong at a deeper level." Dropping 13% in a day, even on equivalent volume to the previous day, qualifies as acting "strange" in my book.
At 3:56 PM, I sold my shares and confirmed that the order had gone through. 17% locked in. I slept well last night.
As these things sometimes go, the stock rallied this morning. It is up to what would be a 24% gain if I hadn't sold it. Due to the rules of trading in this account, I can't just buy back the shares I sold - three business days have to pass for my sell order from yesterday to clear the system. Did I get "shaken out"? Was I hornswaggled and bamboozled by superior market operators who manipulated me into doing what I shouldn't have done?
Nah. I'm just a lucky mug who got to enjoy what would be the ride of a lifetime for most people - a 17% stock market gain in two weeks' time. Can you see me grinning like the Cheshire Cat? That's my sad face for the profits I "lost".
I watched the stock intermittently through the day as I was working. Near the end of the trading session, I had a decision to make: should I sell it? (to lock in the 17% gain that remained) or hold on to it? (hoping for a recovery in the future) It was an especially tough call to make because the trading volume was essentially equal to the previous day's volume. If the volume had been lower, that would have indicated more clearly to stay in the stock. If it had been higher, indicating a "distribution" day, that would have indicated more clearly to get out.
4:00 PM drew ever closer. The volume was neck-and-neck - how to make the call? Well, I had recently listened to a podcast interview by Bill O'Neil on investors.com. He had made a casual comment about having good sell rules that stuck with me. He said, "Stocks are kind of like people, when they act strange there's usually something wrong at a deeper level." Dropping 13% in a day, even on equivalent volume to the previous day, qualifies as acting "strange" in my book.
At 3:56 PM, I sold my shares and confirmed that the order had gone through. 17% locked in. I slept well last night.
As these things sometimes go, the stock rallied this morning. It is up to what would be a 24% gain if I hadn't sold it. Due to the rules of trading in this account, I can't just buy back the shares I sold - three business days have to pass for my sell order from yesterday to clear the system. Did I get "shaken out"? Was I hornswaggled and bamboozled by superior market operators who manipulated me into doing what I shouldn't have done?
Nah. I'm just a lucky mug who got to enjoy what would be the ride of a lifetime for most people - a 17% stock market gain in two weeks' time. Can you see me grinning like the Cheshire Cat? That's my sad face for the profits I "lost".
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Everybody - Back Into The Pool!
"People fear when they should hope and hope when they should fear." -Jesse Livermore
If you have investment money that you've pulled into cash or a money market account, consider putting it back at risk in the stock market. If you don't want to follow individual stocks, you could consider a no-load S&P 500 index mutual fund available through low-cost online brokers such as TD Ameritrade or Scottrade.
Stocks are now in a bull market and have been for about 3 weeks. This is not hyperbole, the fact is that the major market indexes have been climbing higher for the past 3 weeks. They have all crossed above their critical support lines (50 day moving average) and stayed above them with conviction. The past 10 trading days have been marked by the indexes rising on higher volume and falling on lower volume.
As I wrote in this article, it is very easy to miss what is happening today - now - due to fact that our news sources always lag truly current events. Pundits and analysts are still busy trying to decide which industry sector or government bureaucracy holds greater blame for last year's problems. (or greater credit for its triumphs)
I'm asking you not to get caught up in all that. Consider this an inviting you to take a closer look at the data for yourself, along with me, and make the decisions you may have delegated to others in the past. If you lost money in the recent bear market, do whatever you need to do to get the upset from that loss out of your system so that you can do today what is possible to make a better tomorrow.
Disclaimer: I do not currently work as a stock broker or professional money advisor. The views I have expressed are my own opinions. Investing in the stock market entails risk, including the possibility of losing all of your invested capital.
If you have investment money that you've pulled into cash or a money market account, consider putting it back at risk in the stock market. If you don't want to follow individual stocks, you could consider a no-load S&P 500 index mutual fund available through low-cost online brokers such as TD Ameritrade or Scottrade.
Stocks are now in a bull market and have been for about 3 weeks. This is not hyperbole, the fact is that the major market indexes have been climbing higher for the past 3 weeks. They have all crossed above their critical support lines (50 day moving average) and stayed above them with conviction. The past 10 trading days have been marked by the indexes rising on higher volume and falling on lower volume.
As I wrote in this article, it is very easy to miss what is happening today - now - due to fact that our news sources always lag truly current events. Pundits and analysts are still busy trying to decide which industry sector or government bureaucracy holds greater blame for last year's problems. (or greater credit for its triumphs)
I'm asking you not to get caught up in all that. Consider this an inviting you to take a closer look at the data for yourself, along with me, and make the decisions you may have delegated to others in the past. If you lost money in the recent bear market, do whatever you need to do to get the upset from that loss out of your system so that you can do today what is possible to make a better tomorrow.
Disclaimer: I do not currently work as a stock broker or professional money advisor. The views I have expressed are my own opinions. Investing in the stock market entails risk, including the possibility of losing all of your invested capital.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Market Update - Asian Gaming Stocks On The Rise
Analysts from Barrons to Forbes are asking the question, "Does the current uptrend have any legs?" Last week was marked by impressive gains in the Dow, S&P500, and Nasdaq indexes. Although Friday and yesterday were down days, partly due to uncertainty about the the Obama administration's intervention in the auto industry, the volume wasn't all that impressive. On the other hand, today's activity seems to indicate the market has digested the news and is continuing its recent ascent.
I am as concerned as the professionals about the specter of poor earnings announcements and higher unemployment projections for the second quarter. These dynamics could derail the current uptrend. However my stock investing mentor, William J. O'Neil, hails from a heritage whose only sacred mantra is, "Never argue against the market!". Therefore we say that the market is heading up because, well, it is in fact heading up. We can leave the wherefores and whys to the professional analysts while attempting to benefit from the facts of the matter.
One area of impressive growth of late has been in asian stocks that provide computer gaming/entertainment to that part of the world. This morning, I decided to load up on some shares in this sector, we'll see how that goes.
In case you're wondering how my market adventure into stem cells went, I have two words for you: "not well". But I learned a(nother) valuable lesson from Mr. Market about my own tendency to predict which industry groups will lead the market and when. Today's purchases were not about predicting, they were about following what is already leading. (which, when you boil it down, is the main difference between value investing and growth investing)
I am as concerned as the professionals about the specter of poor earnings announcements and higher unemployment projections for the second quarter. These dynamics could derail the current uptrend. However my stock investing mentor, William J. O'Neil, hails from a heritage whose only sacred mantra is, "Never argue against the market!". Therefore we say that the market is heading up because, well, it is in fact heading up. We can leave the wherefores and whys to the professional analysts while attempting to benefit from the facts of the matter.
One area of impressive growth of late has been in asian stocks that provide computer gaming/entertainment to that part of the world. This morning, I decided to load up on some shares in this sector, we'll see how that goes.
In case you're wondering how my market adventure into stem cells went, I have two words for you: "not well". But I learned a(nother) valuable lesson from Mr. Market about my own tendency to predict which industry groups will lead the market and when. Today's purchases were not about predicting, they were about following what is already leading. (which, when you boil it down, is the main difference between value investing and growth investing)
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Birthing the Books Inside Me
They say, "Competence happens in a moment," and I have observed this to be true for myself and for many of my friends. Have you ever held most of the pieces of a mental puzzle in your mind - yet there was one crucial piece that you couldn't quite put your finger on? Later, through some serendipitous circumstance, (an offhand remark, a book, a song, etc) the missing piece came to you and the entire puzzle was solved. Once a solution like this occurs to you, it seems like an epiphany - a moment of enlightenment that illuminates not only the original puzzle, but also numerous other minor conundrums that had been put aside in the cupboards of the mind for future inquiry.
Over the years of my adult life, I have held many of life's major philosophical questions (Who am I? Why am I here? What is truth? etc) in this state of mental suspension while living out various different lifestyle situations. Because I journal, I have been able to notice the essential things which have resonated within me as common and authentic among my experiences. Within the last twelve months, it has felt as if several "final pieces" to these puzzles have come to me.
As a result, I've got about five books inside me that are mostly written. By that, I mean that it would only take a few weeks of writing to get any one of them in manuscript form, ready for editing. One of them is actually fully written in my mind, but I want to find an artist to collaborate on the project. It is a short, illustrated, guided mental journey in book form that would also include a CD with the text of the book spoken in several languages.
There will be many details to work out over the next months, such as: who will be my publisher, what channels of distribution will I use (Traditional? My own web site? Amazon Kindle? etc) how will I promote my work? etc. But none of these concerns feels daunting, they are all just parts of the adventure of giving birth to my spiritual "children" - perspectives on life that particularly turn me "on" and that I believe in my heart will delight and benefit others. I'll keep you informed on my progress here, watch for it!
Over the years of my adult life, I have held many of life's major philosophical questions (Who am I? Why am I here? What is truth? etc) in this state of mental suspension while living out various different lifestyle situations. Because I journal, I have been able to notice the essential things which have resonated within me as common and authentic among my experiences. Within the last twelve months, it has felt as if several "final pieces" to these puzzles have come to me.
As a result, I've got about five books inside me that are mostly written. By that, I mean that it would only take a few weeks of writing to get any one of them in manuscript form, ready for editing. One of them is actually fully written in my mind, but I want to find an artist to collaborate on the project. It is a short, illustrated, guided mental journey in book form that would also include a CD with the text of the book spoken in several languages.
There will be many details to work out over the next months, such as: who will be my publisher, what channels of distribution will I use (Traditional? My own web site? Amazon Kindle? etc) how will I promote my work? etc. But none of these concerns feels daunting, they are all just parts of the adventure of giving birth to my spiritual "children" - perspectives on life that particularly turn me "on" and that I believe in my heart will delight and benefit others. I'll keep you informed on my progress here, watch for it!
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Late to the Rocket Launch
I'm a guy who likes to give advice. I'd like to believe that, over the years, I've mellowed from coming across as a know-it-all to becoming a person who gives advice back to pay off the good advice I've recieved.
Be that as it may, Friday marked an event that illustrates how easy it is for one to neglect one's own advice. I've been sharing a "hot tip" with the stock investing community for over four years regarding stem cell research companies. One of George W. Bush's earliest actions as president was to ban most stem cell research. It was as clear as clear could be to me that one day that policy would be reversed and a whole raft of companies specializing in this research would rise with the swelling tide of progress. On Friday, a West Coast company won FDA approval for the first-ever study of a treatment based on human embryonic stem cells. I have watched this company closely and have traded in and out of it several times in the last year.
When the announcement came out, the stock shot up over 50% between Friday and Monday. Was I already in this stock on Friday? No. Was I in any of the other stem cell stocks I've been watching for the last three years? No. I had recently moved my holdings to cash in the aftermath of the financial crisis, (a good move) but had unwisely allowed the other cares of this world to distract me from keeping tabs on the market.
This is a good lesson to learn: It's not enough to see an event coming, you have to be sure to set yourself up to benefit from it should your prediction come true. As Lao Tzu wrote in the Tao Te Ching, "People usually fail when they are on the verge of success. So give as much care to the end as to the beginning; then there will be no failure". How hard would it have been to bought on some shares in the days before President Obama's inauguration? Answer: not hard at all. So why didn't I take care of this in time? As my mentor, Jim Rohn, would put it, "It was also easy not to."
Luckily, I'm in on the secret that there is no lack of wonderful, exciting opportunities in life. I guess I feel the "missing" of this opportunity more strongly because I've been mentally invested in its eventuality for what seems like a long period of time. Practically speaking, the long term upswing for stem cell stocks in general will almost certainly dwarf the gains my favorite stock made on Friday and Monday. As the market would have it, the stock's price has pulled back on lower volume from it's lofty Monday highs and I have picked up a number of shares. All of this is well and good.
Nevertheless, I intend to be aboard the rocket beforehand the next time I forsee an inevitable blast off.
Be that as it may, Friday marked an event that illustrates how easy it is for one to neglect one's own advice. I've been sharing a "hot tip" with the stock investing community for over four years regarding stem cell research companies. One of George W. Bush's earliest actions as president was to ban most stem cell research. It was as clear as clear could be to me that one day that policy would be reversed and a whole raft of companies specializing in this research would rise with the swelling tide of progress. On Friday, a West Coast company won FDA approval for the first-ever study of a treatment based on human embryonic stem cells. I have watched this company closely and have traded in and out of it several times in the last year.
When the announcement came out, the stock shot up over 50% between Friday and Monday. Was I already in this stock on Friday? No. Was I in any of the other stem cell stocks I've been watching for the last three years? No. I had recently moved my holdings to cash in the aftermath of the financial crisis, (a good move) but had unwisely allowed the other cares of this world to distract me from keeping tabs on the market.
This is a good lesson to learn: It's not enough to see an event coming, you have to be sure to set yourself up to benefit from it should your prediction come true. As Lao Tzu wrote in the Tao Te Ching, "People usually fail when they are on the verge of success. So give as much care to the end as to the beginning; then there will be no failure". How hard would it have been to bought on some shares in the days before President Obama's inauguration? Answer: not hard at all. So why didn't I take care of this in time? As my mentor, Jim Rohn, would put it, "It was also easy not to."
Luckily, I'm in on the secret that there is no lack of wonderful, exciting opportunities in life. I guess I feel the "missing" of this opportunity more strongly because I've been mentally invested in its eventuality for what seems like a long period of time. Practically speaking, the long term upswing for stem cell stocks in general will almost certainly dwarf the gains my favorite stock made on Friday and Monday. As the market would have it, the stock's price has pulled back on lower volume from it's lofty Monday highs and I have picked up a number of shares. All of this is well and good.
Nevertheless, I intend to be aboard the rocket beforehand the next time I forsee an inevitable blast off.
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